The United States Blues
235 years old and feeling it!
Crash, who earned the respect and admiration of animal spirits the world over with his predictive stock market prowess, proved to be more than we could handle the first few trips. Not only did he chew through the cardboard carrier the first time, he busted out of our "industrial strength" solution the following week. Flummoxed, we finally followed the advice of our vet and gave him a sedative this last weekend. That was our first mistake.
He hasn't "talked" to us since. He refuses to make eye contact, he mopes around and with the exception of his exceptionally unique relationship with his new best friend "Petty," he hasn't been himself. Our vet tells us that he's suffering from depression, which I suppose isn't a shocker given the horror he recently witnessed.
We're all about the forward-looking lens in these parts, so I won't belabor the fact that the S&P is already 3% lower this week. I'm simply sharing this fare for those who care, and I'll give ye faithful the heads up when he again finds his stride. There will be no more pills; he's made his position quite clear.
My only hope -- on behalf of his emotional well-being, equity market performance, and the specter of world peace -- is that it isn't too late.
Some Freaky Friday Random Thoughts
- Professor Conor Sen -- who broke the Groupon story two months before the mainstream media (here, and here) -- offers some sage insight as to what he foresees the rest of the year will bring.
- Credit of a different breed -- that of credibility -- is the issue at hand for the markets at large. Always has been, always will be, and therein lies the risk of a pure fundamental (or technical, or structural) approach to risk-management.
- I've long believed commodity volatility is a precursor to equity movement. While one day does not a market make, I'm keeping a close eye on gold and silver for clues to the fuse.
- Key tells today include Apple (AAPL) ("cheap," but crowded), Google (GOOG) (same), Goldman (GS) (has the insider window opened yet?), the dollar (important juncture), and market internals.
- After a few late day sell-offs, market players might be reticent to carry inventory into a thinning summer Friday. You can hear a margin call when it arrives; the ringer sounds a bit like this.
- I love grandparents -- different conversation -- but if this is indicative of how the Raiders season is gonna go, I should just mail it in right now!
- Have a great Friday and a fantastic weekend. You've surely earned it!
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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