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Random Thoughts: The Abby Normal Market


Strange things afoot at the Circle-K.

In normal times, as I wrote early this morning on our real-time Buzz & Banter (click for free trial), I would have drawn your attention to that rather obvious head & shoulders pattern in the S&P, with the "right shoulder" at S&P 1,250 (where the market opened). As any card-carrying technician would attest, that "works," if triggered, to S&P 1150 in a hurry.

That's in normal times; when dogs chased cats, markets were free, and the Yankees won the Series.

Given the binary headline risk surrounding George Papandreou-does he stay or does he go?-and the implications for Greece-does it stay or does it go, and either way, does anyone really believe the rest of the world can ring-fence the ramifications of a default? I don't, but that's an if-then scenario that's largely dependent on the "if."

We won't even discuss Italy yet, because that's a box of Pandora proportion; suffice it to say that if Greece actually calls for a referendum and they vote it down, Greece will default. If that happens, European banks will get toe-tagged, and if that happens, US banks will be taken out and shot. It's not pretty, but quite hopefully calmer heads will prevail and avert what is, by all measures, a very serious situation.

One step at a time as we together find our way, and here's the pattern, for those of you looking to see what I spied early on.

Click to enlarge

Random Thoughts:
  • Apple (AAPL) felt like it wanted to take a dip in Red Dye yesterday and it acts the same way today. Something to watch given its weighting in the NASDAQ.
  • Professor "Metro" Rife asks, "Did you see that Greek press sources reported that the chiefs of the Army, Air Force and Navy were asked to resign? Am I the only one piecing together the notion that they're cutting off the head of the snake before a military coup can form (if the referendum goes to a vote)? And why is nobody talking about this?"
  • Wait...Greece has armed forces?
  • Is that like the Swiss Navy?
  • I say we belly up and eat a slew of BBQ while listening to live music on behalf of the kids! Who's with me?
  • Fare ye well, and if you wanna quick smile, we can do that...

Twitter: @todd_harrison

Follow Todd and over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real-time with a FREE 14 day trial to Buzz & Banter.

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Position in S&P

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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