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Random Thoughts: The Abby Normal Market


Strange things afoot at the Circle-K.

In normal times, as I wrote early this morning on our real-time Buzz & Banter (click for free trial), I would have drawn your attention to that rather obvious head & shoulders pattern in the S&P, with the "right shoulder" at S&P 1,250 (where the market opened). As any card-carrying technician would attest, that "works," if triggered, to S&P 1150 in a hurry.

That's in normal times; when dogs chased cats, markets were free, and the Yankees won the Series.

Given the binary headline risk surrounding George Papandreou-does he stay or does he go?-and the implications for Greece-does it stay or does it go, and either way, does anyone really believe the rest of the world can ring-fence the ramifications of a default? I don't, but that's an if-then scenario that's largely dependent on the "if."

We won't even discuss Italy yet, because that's a box of Pandora proportion; suffice it to say that if Greece actually calls for a referendum and they vote it down, Greece will default. If that happens, European banks will get toe-tagged, and if that happens, US banks will be taken out and shot. It's not pretty, but quite hopefully calmer heads will prevail and avert what is, by all measures, a very serious situation.

One step at a time as we together find our way, and here's the pattern, for those of you looking to see what I spied early on.

Click to enlarge

Random Thoughts:
  • Apple (AAPL) felt like it wanted to take a dip in Red Dye yesterday and it acts the same way today. Something to watch given its weighting in the NASDAQ.
  • Professor "Metro" Rife asks, "Did you see that Greek press sources reported that the chiefs of the Army, Air Force and Navy were asked to resign? Am I the only one piecing together the notion that they're cutting off the head of the snake before a military coup can form (if the referendum goes to a vote)? And why is nobody talking about this?"
  • Wait...Greece has armed forces?
  • Is that like the Swiss Navy?
  • I say we belly up and eat a slew of BBQ while listening to live music on behalf of the kids! Who's with me?
  • Fare ye well, and if you wanna quick smile, we can do that...

Twitter: @todd_harrison

Follow Todd and over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real-time with a FREE 14 day trial to Buzz & Banter.

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