Random Thoughts: The Abby Normal Market
Strange things afoot at the Circle-K.
That's in normal times; when dogs chased cats, markets were free, and the Yankees won the Series.
Given the binary headline risk surrounding George Papandreou-does he stay or does he go?-and the implications for Greece-does it stay or does it go, and either way, does anyone really believe the rest of the world can ring-fence the ramifications of a default? I don't, but that's an if-then scenario that's largely dependent on the "if."
We won't even discuss Italy yet, because that's a box of Pandora proportion; suffice it to say that if Greece actually calls for a referendum and they vote it down, Greece will default. If that happens, European banks will get toe-tagged, and if that happens, US banks will be taken out and shot. It's not pretty, but quite hopefully calmer heads will prevail and avert what is, by all measures, a very serious situation.
One step at a time as we together find our way, and here's the pattern, for those of you looking to see what I spied early on.
Click to enlarge
- Jeffries (JEF) is down 20%... I mean 15%... I mean 10% in the latest ursine attack. Yikes. I just had an ugly vuja de-like I've been here before and I really don't wanna be here again.
- Apple (AAPL) felt like it wanted to take a dip in Red Dye yesterday and it acts the same way today. Something to watch given its weighting in the NASDAQ.
If Greece gets booted from the EU-the probability of which has up-ticked-is the knee-jerk reaction higher... before the A.D.D. mindset focuses on the next domino?
- Have we really gotten to the point where we're trading Bank America (BAC) for pennies?
- Professor "Metro" Rife asks, "Did you see that Greek press sources reported that the chiefs of the Army, Air Force and Navy were asked to resign? Am I the only one piecing together the notion that they're cutting off the head of the snake before a military coup can form (if the referendum goes to a vote)? And why is nobody talking about this?"
- Wait...Greece has armed forces?
- Is that like the Swiss Navy?
I say we belly up and eat a slew of BBQ while listening to live music on behalf of the kids! Who's with me?
Fare ye well, and if you wanna quick smile, we can do that...
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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