Random Thoughts: RIM, Greece, and a Short-Term Crescendo?
Putting one step in front of the other.
Some top-line vibes, in no particular order:
I suppose I should be thankful that I sold most of my Research in Motion (RIMM) above $17 last Tuesday, following the 40% rally off the December 2011 low (as fast money piled in).
My one, albeit nit-pick regret, was that when I read about the management changes last night and the stock was trading 5% higher, I turned to Jamie and said, "This isn't near-term positive; we've gotta punt our 'placeholder' and move to the sidelines for a bit."
Silly me didn't realize that I could have traded "off-hours" in my online brokerage account, and I'm waiting until this morning to make a sale at $16.30 (rather than $18, where it was trading last night). It's no great shakes from a P&L standpoint but lesson learned for future reference.
As recently discussed, the bears threw a lot of salmon at the tape in recent weeks -- sovereign debt downgrades, high-profile earnings misses, wrangling in Europe -- and the reaction to news proved more important than the news itself.
Be that as it may, and while I covered my short-side stabs (banks and beta) for small gains on Friday, I wouldn't be shocked to see a gut-check to the downside this week (possibly on Turnaround Tuesday) to see what kind of will these bulls really have.
The coming news out of Greece, which may potentially stave off default and/or the collapse of the European Union (in its current iteration) is only half the story. The more pertinent discussion surrounds the "roadmap" that will be adopted across the global fixed income spectrum, as well as the reverberations up and down the financial food chain as it relates to counter-party risk. This is HUGE, so don't get caught up in "what" happens and understand "why" that could effect investor psychology.
While I might otherwise scale into some downside exposure to position for such a move -- which is independent of the S&P 1360 target that we spied in December) -- I am slated to fly to Panama on Wednesday for a business trip and will return this Sunday. Insofar as trippy trades tend to take place while I'm out of the office, I would be remiss if I didn't share this particular fare for those who care.
In terms of today's tape, market breadth is 3:1 positive, the financials are again trading firm (as go the piggies, so goes the poke) and beta is mixed, with some strength in Apple (AAPL) -- making up the lost ground on Friday -- and weakness in Amazon (AMZN) and the semis.
I'm in watch mode for the time being, but if the tape shows some lift, I might position myself for a short-side schnitzel into Turnaround Tuesday, as discussed in real-time on our Buzz & Banter subscription (click for a free trial).
Snaps to the NY football Giants on a hard-fought win (yes, while I'm a Raiders fan, I like to see NY teams win) and my condolences to the Ravens fans out there (like my brother); that was a heartbreaking way to lose a game
- As always, I hope this finds you well.
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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