Full Disclosure: Summer Crash and Forward Stash
A step back and a look ahead.
I'm feeling a bit nostalgic today. Perhaps it's the approaching ten-year anniversary of 9/11 -- wow -- or maybe it's the sustaining smiles from our four-month old beauty.
Anyone who's been a persistent part of the Minyanville community knows that when we post a Full Disclosure -- as we did here, here, here, here, and here -- it's shooting straight from the hip with some heart on our sleeve. Through that lens, I offer the following thoughts:
- If I didn't shift course after 9/11, I would likely be A) very wealthy, B) very dead, or C) tempted to do something I wouldn't otherwise do (in varying probabilities). That's not a 3-sided coin I'm willing to flip, however, and I have no regrets about the life choices I've made since that fateful day.
- While there is an obvious profit motive in Minyanville -- we have investors, and I have a fiduciary responsibility to deliver for them -- the mission has always been, and will always remain benevolent in nature (as is our "giving" arm, The Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education, which will host Festivus on 12/2).
- Perhaps that's why I was somewhat surprised by the vitriolic reaction to Wednesday's seemingly innocuous column. As it was picked up by MarketWatch and various other outlets, I'll take solace in the fact that much of the push-back -- or the manner in which the push-back was communicated -- was from outside our community.
- We asked the question on August 5th, Will the Stock Market Crash? (Yes, we got push back on that too, although nothing like we're getting now.)
- In subsequent posts -- including The Summer Stock Market Crash: Where Do We Go From Here? -- we discussed the forward path and a light at the end of the tunnel that isn't affixed to a train. I'll say it again: I can't wait to be the most bullish guy in the room and it will feel very wrong when that comes to pass.
- Yes, I'm seeing through to the other side. The trillion dollar question is, what happens between now and then? While my crystal ball is in the shop, my sense is that we'll see continued dollar strength and subsequent pain for asset classes (and no, I'm not ruling out a re-test toward the 2009 lows).
- Speaking of the grabby greenback, please note the breakout attempt to the upside (through the 200 day moving average) as we speak.
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- Lots moving parts, which is why the path we take is more important than the destination we arrive at.
- A lot, of course, depends on the Government Mule -- the next iteration of quantitative easing and more importantly, the market's reaction to that news.
- We don't "do" politics in the 'Ville unless it impacts financial markets. Through that lens -- and let's note, I'm a registered independent -- I thought the small business payroll tax (and subsequent tax advantages to small business employees, as well as other touch points of the President's jobs initiative last night) was the most cogent plan I've heard coming out of Washington in some time. Of course, that could be because we have a small business.
- What am I doing on the ten-year anniversary of 9/11? Taking a ride with my beloved to look at houses on Long Island. I won't say that I've wanted to leave the City since 9/11, but the belly of the beast has taken a cumulative toll. I won't mind the kids being miles away from the bulls-eye that is NYC.
- It might be a tad early for a pennant chase but I'll draw your attention to the formation being, uh, formed in the S&P. Pennant formations, also known as Flag Patterns, tend to resolve in the direction of the prevailing trend, which is in this case lower.
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- The easiest thing to do is throw Wall Street under the bus. I'm here to tell you that there are a slew of financial professionals -- and firms -- intent on doing the right thing and building a better future. Don't let a few bad apples spoil the bunch and remember that the secular shift in social mood will be around for some time. Take a deep breath, and let's together take a step ahead.
- Have a mindful weekend, and we'll see YOU on the Buzz.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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