Random Thoughts: Silver, Apple, Goldman, and You
The world's wildest reality show continues!
It's been a runaround morning, one that began in the boxing ring at 6AM and morphed into a longer-than-expected visit with the baby doctor. (All systems are "go." The "official and expected" countdown, as measured in days, has entered the teens.)
There was a time I would be stressed beyond belief that I missed the opening bell, but not anymore. There’s a lot to be thankful for and as we like to say, gratitude is latitude.
Here's what I vibed when I strapped into my turret, in no particular order:
- Hi-Ho Silver.com was up 7% when I walked in this morning, offering a not-so-gentle reminder that markets wait for no man. As chronicled in this space (tick-by-tick and trade-by-trade on the Buzz) I've been trading around the short side of this puppy for the last week and it's been a lesson in agility, to say the least. That being said, I “let some exposure back out" into that hot popper (against the inventory I covered into Tuesday's drubbing), getting me back to a full position (as a percentage of my overall risk) with defined risk slightly above that level.
- Good money after bad? It's too soon to tell, but the last time I saw dollar bears this high and "risk" bulls this complacent, Boo walked up to me and said, "The path of the righteous bear is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil bulls. Blessed is he who, in the name of prosperity and good trades, shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost profits." And you know what? He was right.
- Tricks of the Trade: Commodity volatility is typically a precursor to equity movement. With the VXO at 13ish, there are a few ways to win with positive gamma (long volatility) positions if you're well-versed in the risks associated with options.
- Once upon a time, Apple (AAPL) and Goldman (GS) were the super-tell duopoly, and when they pointed in the same direction, the tape inevitably followed. Both are dancing in Red Dye thus far, so keep that in the back of your crowded keppe, along with the fact that the first move (after an FOMC meeting) is often the false move.
- Did you see our take on the Bernanke press conference, by the way?
- Critter bobble heads, ten-buck tees, and MV lids are available on Main Street. MV Blogs (soft launch) is up and running (ping here if you would like to participate). And we've got some GREAT deals on our MVP (MV Professional) products, for those with a hankering for such things!
- We've got month-end posturing in play, which isn't as... gamesy... as quarter-end, but agendas persist nonetheless. I've rarely found an edge in gaming invisible catalysts, but they often sit in the back of my mind when sizing and defining my risk.
- What the heck ever happened to Greg Kihn after Jeopardy?
- Minyan Gary pinged yesterday to offer that “we should be careful for what we wish" with regard to the Fed weaning the market off the synthetic sweetener. The goal of the Federal Reserve coming out of the crisis was to reflate corporate balance sheets (roll debt, issue equity) and that mission was largely accomplished; the manifestation of those unintended consequences remain to be seen.
- The takeaway lesson from Amazon (AMZN)? Never trade headlines; someone puked the stock $20 bucks in the hole when earnings hit the tape, and that lesson is likely now branded on his or her forehead.
- So we finally get to see our President's birth certificate. I never thought that was much of a "story" but hopefully, it will silence some of the “noise.” If you wanna run for President, you should run on policy reform and a viable agenda, not a far-fetched issue that plays to the emotional state of the American people. That's not "pro this" or "anti that," it's just... common sense.
- I dislike politics for one reason: there are too many politicians. I opined before the last election that the enormity of the economic condition was bigger than any one man or political party. That continues to this day -- cumulatively -- and the repercussions will be an era, not an event.
- Kevin "Pepe" Depew hit on an important point yesterday, and one that I fully agree with: There is a massive difference between a rally and a recovery, and that "gray matter" is where perception and reality coexist -- and it's that chasm between the two where profitability resides.
- S&P 1345 = Gold $1500, through a technical (risk definition) lens, and past resistance is future support.
- LL Cool J was a genius.
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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