Randoms: Horse Shoes and Hand Grenades
Bet a dime to make a dollar?
“The Autumn wind is a Raider, pillaging just for fun. He'll knock you 'round and upside down and laugh when he's conquered and won.”
- John Facenda
There are no moral victories in the NFL but if there were, the Oakland Raiders would have a notch in their belt this morning. Entering the game 11.5-point dogs at home, the silver and black rushing attack of DMC and Michael Bush out-gained L.T and Darren Sproles. All told, their once anemic offense gained more total yards than the lightening bolt widely considered having one of the most potent offenses in the league.
I won't lament about what "could have been." I won't dwell on the phantom touchdown in the first half or the curious time-out late in the game. For a franchise that lost 11 or more games six straight seasons—an ominous NFL record—this was a step in the right direction, outplaying a squad many predicted to reach the Super Bowl. "Our football team played its guts out and didn't finish the game," coach Tom Cable said. "That's the bottom line." Indeed it is.
Some Random Thoughts:
- Producer prices saw a healthy jump this morning, which begs the question of "pass through." If consumers have price elasticity, so be it. If not, margin contraction will begin to manifest in corporate America. I knew I minored in economics for a reason!
- You know my current downside bet in tech with a stop on the other side of NDX 1700 (on a weekly basis).
- With that as a context, I'll share a quick discussion I had with my "brother" last night, who has the best pure trading feel I've ever seen. He summed up the environment in four words, "there's nothing for sale."
- I'll also remind Minyans that S&P 1120 is both the downtrend line from the 2007 top and a 50% retracement of that entire move lower. Doesn't mean we get there, doesn't mean we stop there, but it's a worthy context to note as we continue to find our way.
- I'll again share the Jimmy Rogers link, partly because it echoes much of what we've been saying in the 'Ville, but mostly because he's a smart cookie and I always wanna hear what's on his mind.
- On the one side there's debt destruction and eventual outside-in globalization; on the other protectionism that upon manifestation, will slice the world into so many pieces of a pie.
- Strength in the greenback is a necessary precursor to, but no guarantor of, higher asset classes. In other words, we can see a red dollar and red asset classes but we can't, in my view, see sustained strength in both the dollar and asset classes.
Answers I Really Wanna Know…
Isn't there a huge difference between being bearish and being short?
Do you think the ban on flash trading has contributed to the anemic volume since it's been outlawed?
Shouldn't retail sales have an "*" on it to denote cash for clunkers?
And how, pray tell, will Amsterdam measure GDP?
With the market in an uptrend, is this another viable profession for the bears?
Given the Internet is the most deflationary invention of all-time, would you really be that shocked if it "wins" the war against hyperinflation?
Have we seen the panic phase of this move higher yet?
If social move shapes markets, will you really be that surprised, with the benefit of hindsight, if something seismic goes down?
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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