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Random Thoughts: Midday Market Update!

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Editor's Note: The following content posted in real-time on Minyanville's Buzz & Banter. Click here for a free trial of our best content.


Face for Radio! - 11:46 AM

  • I return from the Mother Ship that is BBHQ to find a slew of boxes, yet unpacked, and all sorts of flickering, bickering ticks. The following vibes are top 'o mind as I strap myself in for the final four-ish hours at the current iteration of MVHQ.

  • Do you think Patio Furniture celebrates St. Patrick's Day?

  • If I were at my turret, I would have most certainly "picked" against my S&P long gamma position at the 200-day (S&P 1095), particularly with vols "jacked (the VXO was up 200% in thirteen sessions at today's high, or 166% since we declared "long vol" the best bet on the board on March 22).

  • As rear-view is pooh (wasted energy; opportunities and profitability reside in the ride ahead), I offered partial put positions a nickel below 'the ask' when the Spooz were down 12 (I'm offering options rather than nibbling on stock as a function of the inflated volatility). I didn't get lifted... yet. Geez, that sure was an expensive TV "hit" so far!

  • I offered yesterday (Wednesday? This week feels like one long week!) that if S&P 1150 was breached, we'd see a date with destiny at the 200-day moving average; I didn't, however, foresee it would be the same (next) day (always honest).


    Click to enlarge

  • Be that as it may, I didn't consider yesterday's test legitimate-from a price or capitulation standpoint-as nothing traded there and what did was taken off the tape. I "think" today's test was the real deal (again, I wasn't here) and a Snapper at that level makes all sorts of intuitive sense.

  • Two observations on that front; first, levels (both ways) weaken with each subsequent test and second, by definition, "things" don't work during market crashes, including technical analysis.

  • Speaking of intuition, scary...right? I'm not "feeling good" about the feel, but I'm hopeful sharing it added utility at some level for ye faithful.

  • When I mentioned to Margaret Brennan that I wouldn't be shocked to see government intervention today, she said something along the lines of "We didn't see it overnight, as many people expected." I offered that there's what we see and what there is; the Working Group on Financial Markets most certainly has their finger near the button.

  • And then there's this. reading between the lines -- German Chancellor Angie Merkel declared war on speculators last night -- the probability of game-changing regulation increases in kind. That would likely trigger a knee-jerk melt-up but unintended consequences include all sorts of counter-party contagion risk.

  • Do you think Jean-Claude Trichet would take a mulligan if he could?

  • Do you think it looks a little like this? Geez, That Was Easy!

  • Lemme hop; I'll be back faster than you can say, "what the heck do my positions look like after yesterday's "WTF?"
Chatta Box! - 11:50 AM

No sooner did I hit the "post" button on my last Buzz than I'm picking up all sorts of chatter that there will be a massive Euro ECB loan facility announced over the weekend, including one year 1% loans to cover 1100 banks. It's almost as if global central banks are whispering BOO! into the ears of the bears.

NOT CONFIRMED, naturally, but mis ojos son los ojos y los oídos son los oídos.


Answers I Really Wanna Know… -- 12:38 PM

  • What would Inspector Kemp do right about now?

  • Is it possible that the infamous Goldman (GS) code" that was stolen (that "could be used to manipulate markets in unfair ways") fell into enemy hands?

  • Or am I channeling Jack Bauer again?

  • Next to "time," are "truth" and "trust" the most precious commodities these days?

  • While we need to toss an asterisk on all things technical in this environment, are you keeping an eye on GS $150, if and when?

  • Did Minyan Mason Slaine nail it again with his $20 price target on AOL (AOL)?

  • How bout some snaps to the hard-working MVHQ editorial team and the tireless effort of the MV Professors, who leave it on the field each and every day?

  • If you're getting bullish higher and bearish lower, why not start your weekend early and save yourself some coin (and hair)?

  • "If we're trading fluxy midday, the stage will be set for a Fugly Friday that leads to chatter of another Black Monday?"

  • Or is that what they want you to think?

  • Why does Nokia (NOK)-Apple (AAPL) remind me of AMD (AMD)-Intel (INTC)?

  • Is anyone else looking forward to the end of Mercury Retrograde on May 28?

  • There are 10,000,000 adjectives that can be used to describe this price action but would it be safe to say "healthy" isn't among them?

  • Is it worth noting that crashes occur in oversold tapes?

  • Or is that something Chicken Little would say after a 10% drop in ten sessions?

  • Is your risk profile such that you'll be able to enjoy the important stuff--friends, families, freshly snipped and clipped cats-this weekend?


R.P.

Position in S&P

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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