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Randoms: Tick Tock Towards The Weekend


Fresh vibes into our requisite respite.


Following a 5:30AM wake-up and a reverse commute to Connecticut -- there's something pretty sweet about working in the 'burbs -- I've been juggling chainsaws and bowling balls today as we edge our way towards the weekend full of championship football.

In the interest of brevity -- and in a break from tradition -- I'm gonna shoot quick and straight with hopes it adds value as we weigh the fray and find our way.

Without further adieu:

  • Remember those technical road signs we highlighted at the beginning of the week? S&P 1127 was the top of the New Year Champagne Pop that "worked" to S&P 1115-1120 (where the 50-day also resides) and S&P 1080 is the stair-step below. Remember, past support is future resistance and S&P 1150 is a broader short-side backstop for those with a longer risk leash.

  • Pulling back the lens, we've filled the upside gap from December 21st between S&P 1112ish and S&P 1103. This morning's low tick? S&P 1104 and change. Maybe something, maybe nothing -- maybe a pterodactyl -- but worthy of a mention.

    Click to enlarge

  • Eyes of the world are on Google (GOOG) and General Electric (GE) (reaction to news), Research in Motion (RIMM) (continues to be a "contra-stock"), Wells Fargo (WFC) (traded dry yesterday and continues to do so today), market breadth (2:1 negative), the dollar (flattish anew), and consumer non-durables (as a traditional safety play).

  • According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, "When the Dow closes below its December closing low in the first quarter, it is frequently an excellent warning sign." For purposes of today's tape, that level comes into play at DJIA 10,286 (12/8).

  • We've spoken about the radical shift on Wall Street and what that means going forward. Consistent with my view that the winners coming out of the crisis won't be the same as those that enter it and the ability to add capacity will define them, an up-and-coming broker dealer (that I have tremendous respect for) is looking to hire human capital on the sales trading side. If you -- or someone you know -- are good at what you do and better at who you are, lemme know and I'll pass it along!

Answers I Really Wanna Know...

  • Was it a coincidence that President Obama unleashed his hounds on the same day Goldman Sachs (GS) reported earnings?

  • Are protests from the bulls ("this financial reform won't happen!") a reverse-echo from similar statements shared by the bears last March ("this government intervention won't work!")?

  • Has the market priced in the possibility of a new Fed Chairman and the attendant uncertainty that would accompany it? (Nope.)

  • At what point does a healthy and necessary pullback morph into "hope" the other way?

  • Remember when a strong General Electric (GE) meant a strong market?

  • Or has that simply fallen prey to our super-tell duopoly of Goldman (GS) and Google (GOOG)?

  • If regulatory headwinds persist, will Goldman go private?

  • And if it does, wouldn't it 'want' its stock lower rather than higher?

  • Is it a coincidence that I've gotten sick twice since giving up booze for the month of January?

  • Does anyone else massively fear dentists?


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