Random Thoughts: End of Week Wrap-Up
The final fifth of our freaky week.
The Scatter Plot! - 2:30 PM
One of my mainstay "balance" efforts is to take a walk around the block during particularly hectic sessions; the trick--and this is important--is to look up at the sky and channel energy from someone you love (in my case, Ruby). It's easier said than done given this volatility so use it wisely and when necessary.
You wanna see the details behind Bank America's (BAC) exposure to Europe and the emerging markets? If you do, "turn" to page 159 & 160.
Calling the close would be much easier if those frisky piggies weren't well bid. Keep BKX 50 on your radar, please.
And how's that for a little perspective? Despite the crash carnage, we're still above where we were when we spied the importance of the piggies poking through this technically significant level.
Ditto Apple (AAPL); I'm hearing a lot of chatter about how "bad" Apple is but I remember pinging my brother and suggesting he sell it at $215. He didn't (which is good) but I hope he listened when I asked him to slap some trailing stops on it as it was breaking out to new highs.
Then again, after yesterday, he would prolly be pretty peeved with me right now. How many individuals (and funds, for that matter) still don't know what their risk profile looks like?
I mused this morning (last night, actually, but it didn't post until this morning) that fluxy midday action could lead to a Fugly Friday. While anything--yes, anything--can happen given the specter of game-changing regulation into/over the weekend, I've reminded myself of that vibe a few times throughout the day.
I mean, it's not like this is an important close or anything.
I'm starting to get comfier with the TV thing, but I could do without the caked on make-up face. And what's with the lipstick and toenail polish? It's not even Saturday night!
Was the "easy" trade in China 13% when we spied the violation of the trendline?
"Crash" (the cat, not the action) was pretty psyched by the specter of a ticker-tape parade (although he thinks pretty much everything is for him, including Phoebe's tail).
There's a lot of time left in the session but the tea leaves--absent the financials above our aforementioned level--don't support a Snapper. That's the thing about invisible catalysts (such as game-changing regulation); they're by definition very difficult to see.
You know what else is hard to see? My shoes; it's time for this Minyan to get back to the gym. Maybe after I pack. And write. And trade. And build the 'Ville. And finally get Memoirs done in book form. And see some old friends (it's good for the soul). And...
NO WIRE HANGERS EVER!
OK, I may be losing it. Enjoy contra-hour, Minyans, and thanks for chillin' in the 'Ville. If you like what you see, please tell two friends. And they'll tell two friends. And so on. And so on. And so on!
Master and Commander - 3:10 PM
I hate being the Master of the Obvious but THE level into the close is (drum beat please)...S&P 1095, which is the 200-day moving average.
Given I'm fairly sure there is a hand stand in play, I would be genuinely surprised--and a tad scared--if him lets us close below that massively important technical (psychological) level into the weekend.
Nobody is bigger than the market, I know/am told, but we're talking about a weekend full of headlines and a Monday to remember.
For my part, I finally got lifted on a partial put offering (from this morning) and I'm happy to make some sales into the smeltage and the VXO poppage. Setting limits (in my case, a nickel below the offer) is the only way to trade this tape.
In fact, this reminds me of a certain day in September 2008 when, as much as I love to trade ("Danger" is my middle name), I couldn't because the system was taxed and prices were trading through markets. I'll say it again; when the capital market construct no longer functions properly, it's officially broken; and that, by definition, defines a crash.
The question we must wrestle with is whether or not that mindset manifests over the weekend. I will say this; IF this is a correction, it's done a heckuva good job masking itself as a percolating contagion. And that, quite ironically, might be the most bullish thing on the board.
Fare ye well into the bell and have a peaceful--and safe--weekend.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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