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Two Ways: Rough Seas Ahead for Seagate


Strengthen your portfolio in good times and bad.

Seagate Technology (STX) has had a brilliant run in 2009, trading from below $3 a share at the beginning of the year to currently above $12. But the stock could be in for a bumpy ride in the back half of 2009. According to Barron's Weekday Trader, with $2.7 bln in debt (half of the company's markets cap), fierce competition, and shaky earnings, these forces could put a cap on shares of the computer disk-drive maker.

Even though Seagate dominates about 60% of the enterprise hard-drive market, most of its business comes from the original-equipment manufacturers (OEM) like IBM (IBM), Dell (DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) which weighs on its pricing power. New management has been able to turn around the company fairly well as margins have expanded in the last quarter, but long-term headwinds are likely to limit the stock's upside potential.

From the Bull Pen: In tech, Professor Sean Udall had positive comments yesterday on the Buzz for Apple (AAPL). Those bullish can fade (read: buy) into $155 with a sell stop below.

From the Bear Cave: For those bearish on Seagate, one can identify the strong resistance on the monthly chart at $14. One option is to fade (read: sell) into that level with a buy stop above.

Quick Check Around the World

Asian trading closed with the Nikkei -0.79%, India -1.50%, Hang Seng -1.73%, Shanghai -4.30%, and Taiwan -0.02%.

Across the pond, we see the FTSE -0.43%, CAC -0.36%, DAX -0.53%

As of 8:15 AM EST, S&P Futures are trading -11.5 to 978.25 and Nasdaq futures are -19.25 to 1567.50.

A Look at Commodities

Over in commodities, crude oil is trading -1.48 to 66.03 while gold is -11.20 at 937.50 this morning. Silver is -0.592 to 14.13 and copper -6.900 to 276.70.

The dollar index is +0.5550 to 79.5600.

On the Radar


10:30 Crude Inventories

Click here for the full trading radar.

Let's get over this hump, Minyans. Good luck and have a great day!
No positions in stocks mentioned.

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