Daily Commodity Spot: Crude Oil Extends Higher to Probe Above $100, Possibly Nearing Turning Point
A breakdown of the six most active commodity futures from today.
The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.
Today's Highlight: Crude Oil extended higher to probe above $100, which got everyone's attention. Of course, this was the second day of gains since triggering a buy signal Tuesday. And headlines often accompany near-term turning points.
1. Dollar Basket
March contract; DX (UUP, UDN)
March contract; EC (FXE)
Thursday morning's initial trending attempt was quickly retraced back to Wednesday's range, which was itself an inside day. Early trending Friday beyond Thursday morning's extremes would be likely to trend further into and out of the weekend. There is otherwise no active signal.
February contract; GC (GLD)
Regardless of Tuesday night's wild detour up to 1,643.70, Tuesday and Wednesday's tests of 1,620.00 resistance could react down to test 1,610.50 before signaling a new downleg under way. Thursday's open dipped immediately and extended down to probe under 1,600.00. The close was still testing 1,610.50, but a second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm a new downleg under way. That would be difficult without also taking currencies beyond their Thursday morning extremes.
March contract; SI (SLV)
Wednesday's "ineffectual pessimism" proved less relevant than Tuesday's "ineffectual optimism" when Thursday's open trended down below each. The afternoon ranged consolidated down to 29.00, targeting 27.90.
5. 30-Year Treasury
March contract (TLT)
Narrow ranging Thursday off of Wednesday's fresh low maintained the pattern's sell signal. A bigger bounce would have helped to refuel sellers, so extending down Friday without delay would be suspicious.
6. Crude Oil
March contract; CL (USO)
Wednesday's gains had confirmed Tuesday's buy signal, which had put into play a test of 103.00. Thursday's fresh highs probed above 100.00 intraday to grab headlines. Headlines can accompany near-term turning points, and a little correction to this three-day, $6 rally would be helpful, - preferably avoiding a close under 99.00 to maintain the rally's momentum.
Editor's note: Rod Davis uses analytical techniques designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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