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MV Weather Report: Windless May Ends With Light Breeze


Rain or shine, we review the day's biggest stock stories.

Today was the last day of trading for May, a month that saw the S&P do almost nothing. However, when combining the last three months we get some powerful stats. The month of May was the third up month in a row, marking the first time that has happened since October of 2007 (this was the top of the market). This has also been the greatest 3 month percent gain in over 10 years.

Those are some wild statistics but May itself really wasn't too spectacular. Other then a few sharp up and down days, the market has been stuck in a trading range. This should have been expected after the amazing stretch from March to April.

As for today's trading, the market was indecisive and at the end of the session the S&P 500 closed up 0.97%.

We've been monitoring the action in the bond market all week and on today's Buzz and Banter, Professor Jeff Cooper Buzzed about the action.

"Rates are receding a tad which is shown by the solid rally in the TLT.

"Despite rates backing off from their blistering rally, the broad market still acts heavy which strikes me as particularly bearish short term especially in view of the fact that today is month end when there was "
supposed to me a buying panic" AND in light of the 3 lower highs on the hourly S&P.

"Someone's breaking ranks."

Monday is the first day of June and traders will be watching for Personal Income and Personal Spending, both of which are due out at 8:30 am. The week is actually packed with economic data. On Friday the market will get the all important jobs numbers which I believe is the single most important economic indicator right now. For a look at that rest of the week ahead check out the trading radar.

Today on the Buzz and Banter, Professor James Kostohryz gave his preview for the week ahead.

"Employment numbers will be the most followed. Unfortunately, expectations were raised after last month's surprise. The problem is that I am not sure that consensus forecasts are fully taking into account the direct and indirect effects of what is going on in regions heavily influenced by the auto industry. Not only are there lay offs in auto and related industries, just as important, there is also a chilling effect on hiring in all economies reliant on these industries. Having said that, I expect stronger hiring trends in various regions, and this might just offset the effects mentioned above. Unless I come across some more data next week, I will feel quite uncertain about how this number is going to come out.

"All in all, it seems trading could be somewhat listless and directionless next week. Traders will be leaning short. But institutional flows will keep a bid under the market, probably frustrating most downside probes.

Have a great weekend Minyans!
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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