Positioning for Turnaround Tuesday
The tape tends to come back after manic Mondays.
You don't have to twist my arm to be bearish.
Remember 2005? I painted a scary picture regarding "overcapacity on the sell-side," the dangers of debt, the risk to real estate and multiple compression concerns (among other things, such as the likelihood that energy would overtake the financials as top-weighting in the S&P).
2006? I humbly offered that "the probabilities of a prolonged socioeconomic malaise are higher than most folks have factored into their risk assumptions."
Two weeks and 1000 points ago? I scribed the recipe for a market melt, noting five things that would pave the way for a downside disconnect.
Suffice to say that I completely respect the potential for further slippage. I have a high degree of confidence that we're looking at a multi-year deleveraging process that will shake the foundations of Wall Street and Main Street.
With that said, there are two reasons I'm holding my (relatively outsized) Wachovia (WB) call position overnight.
The first is that the potential for a bounce in the banks once the new quarter arrives and funds no longer worry about showing them on its sheets.
The other? It's Turnaround Tuesday and as nonsensical as it seems, it has a tendency to stand tall.
I've gotta hop and turn over the hot seat to Pep but I wanted to offer my honest assessment before thy final bell tolls. My compass could be askew but as we're apt to say in the 'Ville, sometimes right, sometimes wrong, always honest.
Fare ye well into the bell my friends and remember, the definition of an investment should never be a trade gone awry.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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