A Good Time To Buy Crude?
Wait on weakness.
It's a good thing next week is only four days (I'll work tomorrow and Monday) because this week felt like an eternity. That's what happens when 400 points is lopped off the Dow in a 48 hour period: Each tick lower felt like water torture, each tick higher felt like a cruel joke. And there is still one day to go.
Yesterday finally saw crude slow and give up ground and also a lot of (formerly) hot niches like solar--like Solarfun (SOLF), Renesola (SOL) and JA Solar (JASO)--and dry bulk shippers--see DryShips (DRYS), Excel Maritime (EXM) and Genco Shipping (GNK)--taking a serious pounding. I've played all of these names this year and last and save for a very old position on DRYS I wasn't holding any of them. That's because the gains I achieved were mind boggling. I love that they came down, albeit it's always a little unnerving to watch any stock give up 10% in a single session, but that is the nature of these beasts. I'm salivating about the prospect of going back to the well on those names; I'm just not sure if I do it ahead of a three day weekend, or if we wait until next Tuesday.
Speaking of wells, crude oil finally took a break but not after reaching more than $135.0 a barrel. I still feel somewhat like I'm in a weird dream or trance when I type out such numbers. Just think: At the start of the year would anyone have imagined that crude would reach $135.0 a barrel?
Is oil the next bubble?
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Yesterday there was a little confetti tossed around because crude reversed early gains and surrendered a couple of bucks. It was the first time it declined in five days.
I think it's a little early to break out the party hats and like those wild solar and dry bulk plays I'd be looking to buy crude oil names on weakness. I'm not worried or fretting about some kind of major pullback, as that's a given and long overdue. I just can't imagine such a correction not being short-lived. My top idea in the space continues to be Transocean (RIG).
Ready To Reload?
Everyone should have a fair amount of cash and be ready to reload. In addition to the aforementioned groups I think agriculture will stage another major rally. It's difficult to suggest that you buy these stocks right at this moment but you don't write them off just as you don't write off the crude oil rally.
I think the volatility could shake out a few investors that jumped in these groups late looking for a non-stop ride. If you want to play the momentum game –it can get rough. However, Potash (POT) has to be at the top of anyone's buy list. Then there are individual names like Google (GOOG), Research in Motion (RIMM) and Apple (AAPL).
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