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Random Thoughts: Finding Our Way Through an Historic Day

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This tape is demanding that traders listen.

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Editor's Note: The following content was posted in real-time on our premium Buzz & Banter and is being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. This is a continuation from Random Thoughts: What Does It All Mean?


Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world... - 10:52 am

  • A'ight, so we got the first probe lower and now we're seeing the rally attempt as the winners and sinners separate.

  • Winners? Homies, among others, along with "homie retail" such as Lowe's (LOW) and Home Depot (HD).

  • Sinners? Financial antelopes such as Lehman Brothers (LEH) (-12%), Washington Mutual (WM) (-12%), many semis and select drillers.

  • For what it's worth and so it's said, I had Lehman circled as a short candidate on the opening but got so busy I forgot to pull the trigger. No news is bad news for the time being but I'm most certainly not chasing it lower. The "easy" trade, as they say, has passed.

  • Remember Minyans--a few hundred billion for Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) is a few hundred billion less for other troubled financial institutions.

  • Is anyone really psyched that football season has officially arrived?

  • I cut my USO call position in half near the opening (again, as a function of the stronger dollar) and left have with an eye towards Hurricane Ike.

  • Net/net, I think energy has further bounce but I'm playing smaller with an eye towards my broader, deflationary vibes. Just trading, Winky.

  • It's been a long week this morning so take a deep breath and remember that there's a LOT of trading left in the day, week, month and year.

  • As always, I hope this finds you well.


Lunch Meat! - 12:16 pm

  • It's a classic fish out of water tale.

  • So, lemme get this straight... $200 billion in cash, the tax-payer has exposure on trillions of dollars of paper and stocks are... where they were Friday?

  • If I were Hank Paulson and I had a button, you can bet your bottom dollar that I would be furiously pushing it as the Spooz get near the flat line.

  • What have I done since we last spoke? You mean other than get bumped from my morning TV hit (oh, the irony!).

    • I've pared some short exposure (Sears Holding (SHLD), Wal-Mart (WMT)) as I punted the General Mills (GIS) on the opening and cut the Coke (KO) in half.

    • I got the USO calls down to 25% of my weekend position size (with one eye on the dollar and the other on crude par).

    • I've sold just enough Wachovia (WB) puts to be disciplined and slapped a trailing stop on the leaves.

    • I haven't touched the SMH puts, despite the additional short exposure added on the opening (although I prolly will soon).

    • I haven't touched the General Electric (GE) puts (that I doubled down on the opening) although again, I prolly will soon.

  • I am trying to look forward to Thursday as we'll be "turning obstacles into opportunities" and celebrating life, love and each other on that fateful anniversary.

  • I would be remiss (and not entirely honest) however if I didn't share that I had a tough stretch this weekend as I pulled together my anniversary tribute. It was a dark place and a dark time and I suppose some introspection is to be expected.

  • As always, Minyans, I hope this finds you well.


Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 1:22 pm

  • While Boston sports teams are a core short position of mine, is anyone else really disappointed to see Tom Brady go out like that?

  • Will crude rally ahead of Hurricane Ike or continue to drip as a function of slowing global growth and the secular turn higher by the dollar?

  • Why not both?

  • In that light, shouldn't I share that I bought back some of those USO calls that I punted into the higher opening?

  • What happens to Lehman (LEH) or Washington Mutual (WM) in this new world order?

  • At what price, to both shareholders and society?

  • And what about General Motors (GM) and the other autos?

  • Or the airlines, for that matter?

  • Isn't that the problem with socialization?

  • Where do you draw the line?

  • Long Hank, long Pampers on a pairs?

  • The Raiders game starts at 10:15 PM EST tonight?

  • Don't these people work?!?


R.P.

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Position in USO, SHLD, GE, WMT, WB, SMH
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