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How Long Until a Rally?


Market may have to wait until 2009.


As hedge fund redemptions pile up, there is every sort of debt instrument for sale, particularly hybrids (fixed to floating preferreds) and preferred shares.
Minyanville's Why Wall Street Will Never Be the Same
There are a bunch of funds that used the securities as a funding vehicle. Now they are funding out what happens to perpetual securities when spreads blow out.

The real problem, though, is that selling begets selling. Individuals, jammed full of this stuff, will panic and sell for a tax loss.

Meanwhile it isn't terribly economic for firms to issue at 15%, which is the popular level for the weak regionals.

Then there are four more problems:

1. Quarter end balance sheet pressures on 9/30.
2. Mutual fund fiscal year ends 10/31.
3. Brokerage firms fiscal year 11/30.
4. Year end 12/31.

I don't see this market rallying until we get past these dates and it will make it awfully tough on those that need capital, which is nearly everyone.

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