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Measuring Up the Pre-Holiday Session


Trading into the Turkey Day fray.


Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter. It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also Giving Thanks: Gratitude is Latitude.

Thin pre-holiday session? Quieter than a mouse pffft? A take it or leave it? Pishaw, Minyans, this is 2008, where men are men and sheep are nervous. There's no such thing as a gimme these days, save Minyan Felix Cavaliere and his penchant for affection.

Some top-line vibes as I digest the morning ExCo meeting and eyeball a high noon journey to the land of Ed Reed.

  • Does anyone remember "SOES ahead!" or am I dating myself?

  • I spoke with Mr. Practical and he confirmed what we've been vibing---it's all about the currencies. If the dollar continues to rally, all bets are off for asset classes. If it continues to come in, stocks and commodities will be better bid. It's that Wishbone World we so often speak of.

  • Durable Goods were a disaster. Is anyone really surprised? Not to be Pollyanna but it's worth remembering news is always worst at a bottom and best at a top.

  • I'm not saying we're out of the woods--as I mused in 2006, we're in for a prolonged period of socioeconomic malaise entirely more depressing than a recession--but that doesn't mean those can't be littered with Hot Poppers to the upside.

  • Along those lines, for better or for worse and always honest, I carried some upside exposure into today's fray. It's predicated primarily in the energy space--which should be aided by the 4% pop in crude--with a smattering of tertiary exposure, such as Research in Motion (RIMM).

  • And I still think the biggest surprise is a ripper into year-end.

  • Speaking of RIMM, it's down 23 cents with the futures down 15. Keeping in mind that I have a position--but regardless of that fact--I would offer that a high beta stock down that little with the futures down that much speaks to underlying demand. Don't be surprised to see this stock frip the upside switch this morning, if only for a trade.

  • The "big news of the day"? I have a pimple at 39--crazy! The other big news? The BCE takeover faces a delay as the auditor said that the terms may make the company insolvent. Scary, eh?

  • Snaps to Team Festivus for selling out our holiday soiree for the kids. Fantabulous job, Yo, and very much looking forward.

  • There is so much beauty in the world and so very many things to be thankful for. Keep it in perspective this holiday season, my friends, as it could be worse and for many people, it already is.

  • "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." – Thomas Jefferson

  • Gotta hop, Minyans. Let's do this right which, for me, would mean getting somewhat smaller (from an already smallish base) before I get larger tomorrow into top-button time.

  • Good luck, be the ball and enjoy the ride. In 100 years, none of this will really matter anyway.


Please be advised that the 2008 Holiday Festivus to benefit the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education has officially SOLD OUT as we tagged our magical 300 Minyan mark. If you (or someone you know) would still like to attend, shoot us an e-mail and we'll see what we can do. We strive to take care of our own in these parts and as always, we'll do our best to circle ye faithful.

Position in energy, RIMM
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