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Randoms: Make or Break the Other Way!


The market arrives at the mirror image of S&P 950.


So, is it really that simple? As intuitive as S&P 950 was on the upside, so too is S&P 875-885 on the downside. Hold, and the bulls have a bovine backstop to lean against as they set their sights on an upside retest. Fold, and it's Sayonara Sally for Hoofy's Heroes, in addition to the likelihood that S&P 956 was the Widow's Peak of 2009.

Other than that, there's not much going on...

What am I thinking as we edge through this critical juncture? Glad you asked! In no particular order:

  • Just as we drew S&P 950 with a crayon rather than a pencil (and traded to S&P 956 before failing), so too shall S&P 875 be drawn. Remember, technical levels are simply a context, not a catalyst. If they were "all that and more," things would be better higher and worse lower, which is the opposite of how we need to trade.

  • In terms of the Memoirs, this week is the first chapter that should make some waves. It'll post first thing in the ayem (as it does each Wednesday) or sent tonight to those on board the Minyanville Underground Railroad.

  • Tea Leaves R' Us? Breadth is almost 3:1 negative (remember, it was funky yesterday as well), beta is taking it on the chin (Amazon (AMZN) $85? Sigh), the macro (dollar) is quiet (yet crude is still for sale) and the banks (Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC)) continue to trade dry in front of a big upcoming earnings week.

  • How will earnings in the financials net out? More likely than not, stellar. What I'll say after almost 20 years of trading this complex---and what Minyan Peter has said with similar experience---is that earnings are rear-view and the balance sheet is forward-looking. I'm currently not involved in the sector but as always, we'll use them as an important tell for the broader tape.

  • Is it possible to succeed in media without being a shameless self-promoter? I don't know but I spose we'll find out.

  • If we catch a downdraft in Research in Motion (RIMM) and I can sell half my puts to cover my cost (and ride the leaves for free), that would be a high class decision. One step at a time and NO MUSHING as we find our way.

  • What exactly are apple bottom jeans?

  • The Employment Conundrum continues, not only for those out of work but for those gainfully employed for less while expected to do more. That was sorta the gist of these theme in the first place.

  • There's been alotta chatter regarding the new media model. My take is that the tiered content approach will work. It's not unlike basic cable--you get 100's (if not 1000's) of channels but will pay for HBO because you wanna watch Entourage.

  • That's not to say there won't be "information deflation." That's been in play for some time (as a function of supply via the internet) and why I view traditional networks as "channels" in the digital age.

  • Just one man's humble opinion. As always, I hope this finds you well.


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