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Randoms: Fed-Ex Delivers a Dose of Reality


Markets weigh what was versus what will be.

  • I know news is always worst at the bottom and best at the top but the Federal Express (FDX) comments that they're facing "the most difficult economic conditions ever" should be couched in the context that it's still up 50% from the (admittedly overshot) March lows.

  • FDX $50 is the level of lore for trannies galore.

  • Oh come on now. If we lose our levity, what are we left with?

  • I agree with "G" that the key variable will be balance-politicians must resist the urge to swing the pendulum too far in the other direction (after whiffing big time as the bubbles built or, if we're being honest, inflating the bubbles with misguided polices) while at the same time taking a strong stand in the right spots.

  • It's not like the writing wasn't on the wall, right? Newbie Minyans, please click through these links for a proactive play-by-play of the financial crisis before it hit the tape. This isn't a victory lap-that's not how we role in the 'Ville-it simply proves a point. If our humble community saw "it" coming, the policy makers and politicians responsible for policing our capital markets should have been on the case before the white chalk and toe tags emerged with a vengeance.

  • The here and now? Huggies and Druggies (consumer non-durables and pharma) stand out (and yes, sector rotation is constructive) while the rest of the tape waffles. The financials are pretty in pink (note Bank of America (BAC) down 4% as it's been a true tell) and big beta is soft (ex-Baidu (BIDU)) in front of Research in Motion (RIMM) earnings (tomorrow night).

  • Snaps to the Q-Man for some nice trades and solid performance in the FlexFolio recently. Two weeks is on us, if you wanna give it a look.

  • June expiry is shaping up as a biggie and I'll remind ye faithful that expiration influences typically manifest in the days preceding the actual option burial. Something to keep in mind as you're sizing your risk profile.

  • The trading journey as a series of sequential steps and it's easier to digest the crosscurrents when you have a contextual construct for risk management that provides the necessary margin of error. We all trip at times but the trick to the trade is not to fall.

  • Through that lens, Minyans know that I've been eying S&P 950 for some time. As my stylistic approach has been "hit it to quit it," I faded (read: sold) that level and subsequently covered that risk as we tested S&P 920 the first time.

  • Yesterday, when S&P 920 was breached (and past support morphed into future resistance), I re-initiated some short side exposure, setting my "buy stop" above that level. S&P 908 (200-day) and S&P 892 (50-day) are the next tangible levels of support.

  • The levels themselves weren't my catalyst, they were simply a context to frame the risk that "fits around" my current assimilation of the financial market landscape.

  • Is it a coincidence that my perceived probability of a "W" is the same odds I placed on deflation trumping hyperinflation? Nosiree Bob.

  • The S&P lowered ratings and revised outlooks on 22 rated U.S. banks this morning, reflecting the belief that operating conditions in the industry will become less favorable than they were in the past. The reaction to news remains more important than the news itself.

  • I consider Chapter 2: Animal House the weakest of the 18 links that comprise Memoirs of a Minyan. It's gonna heat up soon, while staying on the high road of course. I like it there--it's less crowded and has much better views.

  • I'll be hanging with our pals on NBR's Street Critique tonight at 6:30 PM EST. Given I was up (and at the gym) at 4:30 this morning, it should make for a most interesting segment!

  • I would be lying if I said I wasn't a "little" excited for the under-the-radar 40th Hippie-themed soiree Friday night. Life is hard. The ability to take a step back and enjoy the journey with those you love is what we mean when we say "work to live, don't live to work."

  • All in all it's just another brick in the wall. Whether that wall will be one of worry (to be scaled) or the Berlin variety (Crumble City) remains to be seen but you know which way I'm leaning and you know where my risk is defined.

  • One step at a time, friends, as we together find our way.


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