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Random Thoughts: Band on the Run


Right back into the thick of it.

Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter. It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also Monday Morning Quarterback: Fighting the Good Fight.

So, how was your weekstart? With a notable nod to needed sleep, ketchup reading and despite the second heart-breaking Raider loss in a row (grr!), mine was just what the doctor ordered. Heck, I even managed to squeeze a smile or two in there. Imagine that.

Yet in the blink of an eye, here we are again, right back in the thick of it. Hit me again Ike, and this time put some STANK on it!

Some Random Thoughts to start the Freaky Week:

  • Indeed, as we mused Friday, the potential existed that Hoofy was getting all dressed up for the rescue package and nobody would come to his party. It's early, natch, but I've spoken to alotta traders who bought to sell into the rescue rally.

  • When I saw the S&P futures open a meager 4 handles higher last night (6:00 EST), I knew that Zed would be red by the time we got out of bed.

  • In addition to concerns regarding the potential effectiveness of the rescue package, global government bailouts of banks (Belgium, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, UK, Iceland) contributed to concern.

  • The greatest oppportunities are bred from the most profound obstacles. A such, I've been sifting through some charts looking for defined risk. Research in Motion (RIMM) was among the stocks I looked at (after Friday's face plant) but when I pulled up some multi-year persepctive, I found that this was a $20 stock a few short years ago. YES, business has boomed and it's a great product (read: don't you dare take mine from me). I'll simply say that good companies don't always equate to good stocks. That's not RIMM particular, it's more of a general thought as we wade through these waters.

  • Man, this market is like trying to play hockey while reading a newspaper. SO... Citigroup (C) is going to acquire Wachovia's (WB) banking operation with the assistance of the FDIC, Fed and Treasury. Wachovia is trading at $1.70 as I pound the keyboard but--and this is the important part--the deposits are protected.

  • The upside of anger? Accountability, or so it seems. The single biggest bummer in the original plan was the absence of culpability and the request for immunity by those putting it in place. Again, this isn't something one would wish for but if it has to happen, there must be checks and balances.

  • Minyans are encouraged to communicate their thoughts in The Exchange, which is the only type of socialization you'll ever see in the 'Ville. It's free, it's thought provoking and it's there for the benefit of ye faithful.

  • Oh yeah, that! Remember when they shifted the construct of capitalism and suspended the free market system? The fallout from hedge funds will be fierce and many of those redemptions will hit into quarter-end. Yes, many funds will fail and we'll need to remember that they have counter-parties tied together with derivatives and those funds have counter-parties tied together with derivatives and those funds...

  • According to the FT, one prime broker said "Many funds will have to close. There were a flood of redemption notices at the beginning of the quarter but many investors said they wouldn't actually withdraw the money if performance improved. It hasn't."

  • There's a LOT going on Minyans and I'll again offer that price discovery is a process rather than a point. I'm not smart enough to know how this will play out in Our Wishbone World but I'm confident in our collective ability to find our way to better days and easier trades. And how are we gonna do that? Together.

  • Good luck today.


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