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VIDEORanges Following Early September Moves
By
Richard Suttmeier
Sep 07, 2010 9:00 am
Plus analysis of the FDIC quarterly banking profile.
Editor's Note: This article was written by Richard Suttmeier, chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com, which is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, New Jersey, that covers more than 5,000 stocks every day.
10-Year Note -- (2.706) My annual value levels are 2.813 and 2.999 with a daily pivot at 2.684 and monthly, weekly, quarterly, and semiannual risky levels at 2.562, 2.507, 2.495, and 2.249. (CBOE Interest Rate 10-Year T-Note (^TNX) last traded at 2.64.)
Source: Thomson / Reuters
Comex Gold -- ($1248.2) Weekly, semiannual, quarterly, and annual value levels are $1223.7, $1218.7, $1140.9, and $1115.2 with daily, semiannual, and monthly risky levels at $1257.5, $1260.8, and $1263.8. Note that gold is still overbought on its daily chart.
Source: Thomson / Reuters
Nymex Crude Oil -- ($74.34) My monthly pivot is $74.45 with weekly, annual, and semiannual risky levels at $76.76, $77.05, and $83.94.
Source: Thomson / Reuters
The Euro -- (1.2893) Quarterly and monthly value levels are 1.2167, 1.1721, and 1.1424 with a daily pivot at 1.2854, and weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.3168 and 1.4733. (CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) last traded at 128.47.)
Source: Thomson / Reuters
Daily Dow: (10,448) Monthly and quarterly value levels are 10,164 and 7,812 with daily and annual pivots at 10,339 and 10,379, and weekly, semiannual, and annual risky levels at 10,515, 10,558, and 11,235. My annual risky level at 11,235 was tested at the April 26 high of 11,258.01. The 50-day simple moving average is 10,266 with the 21-day at 10,290, and 200-day simple moving average as resistance at 10,451, which was tested on Friday.
Source: Thomson / Reuters
FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile -- Headline Analysis
10-Year Note -- (2.706) My annual value levels are 2.813 and 2.999 with a daily pivot at 2.684 and monthly, weekly, quarterly, and semiannual risky levels at 2.562, 2.507, 2.495, and 2.249. (CBOE Interest Rate 10-Year T-Note (^TNX) last traded at 2.64.)
Source: Thomson / Reuters
Comex Gold -- ($1248.2) Weekly, semiannual, quarterly, and annual value levels are $1223.7, $1218.7, $1140.9, and $1115.2 with daily, semiannual, and monthly risky levels at $1257.5, $1260.8, and $1263.8. Note that gold is still overbought on its daily chart.
Source: Thomson / Reuters
Nymex Crude Oil -- ($74.34) My monthly pivot is $74.45 with weekly, annual, and semiannual risky levels at $76.76, $77.05, and $83.94.
Source: Thomson / Reuters
The Euro -- (1.2893) Quarterly and monthly value levels are 1.2167, 1.1721, and 1.1424 with a daily pivot at 1.2854, and weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.3168 and 1.4733. (CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) last traded at 128.47.)
Source: Thomson / Reuters
Daily Dow: (10,448) Monthly and quarterly value levels are 10,164 and 7,812 with daily and annual pivots at 10,339 and 10,379, and weekly, semiannual, and annual risky levels at 10,515, 10,558, and 11,235. My annual risky level at 11,235 was tested at the April 26 high of 11,258.01. The 50-day simple moving average is 10,266 with the 21-day at 10,290, and 200-day simple moving average as resistance at 10,451, which was tested on Friday.
Source: Thomson / Reuters
FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile -- Headline Analysis
- Quarterly Earnings Are Highest in Almost Three Years
- Reduced Loan-Loss Provisions Boost Net Income -- There's still a huge gap between Noncurrent Loans and Loan-Loss Reserves, but the coverage ratio has stabilized. The policy of “extend and pretend” with regard to bad loans will come back to haunt community and regional banks in the quarters ahead.
- Noncurrent Loans Post First Decline in More Than Four Years -- This is a result of the “extend and pretend” policy that keeps many bad loans current.
The Number of FDIC-Insured “Problem” Banks Increased to 829 from 775; and the number of institutions declined to 7,830, which means that the percentage of “problem” banks rose to 10.6% from 9.8%.
Bank Lending to Small Businesses
- Small businesses don't see an economic opportunity to expand given the unknowns of health-care costs and tax policy.
- Banks don't want the risk of extending new business loans given the same economic uncertainties.
- Banks are shunning deposits based on the ridiculously low rates being offered for money market funds, bank CDs, and passbook savings accounts.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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