Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

What to Expect From Retailers Next Week


Probably better-than-expected numbers and a lousy reaction from the market.


Greetings from New York, where the snow is picturesque and the trading is bearish. I'm getting long the Ultrashort S&P500 ETF (SDS), again, with the S&P 500 failing to take out 1105. Why 1105? Because I counted the Big Round Number as resistance but I gave it five points of latitude. Since I came into the day with a bearish bias but long, I went to add short exposure at resistance. That gives you a nice tight stop on the upside (1115, which is 1110 plus five and would mark a breakout of sorts) and a downside target that remains around 1050.

I'm not looking to catch 100% of a move; I'm looking to capture 80% of it by tip-toeing through the traffic with short-term trades, tight stops, and discipline. This type of trading is grinding, not playing for the big hand. Take a slice of winners and be quick to step aside if you're wrong. Until further notice, the market is grinding up time and money somewhere around here at Dow 10k and S&P 1100. That said, there's more room below than above so I'm trading short to flat on exposure. Get it?

Here's what I'm awkwardly segueing into for the benefit of anyone left after the above:

  • We get retailers starting next week. What do I expect? Better-than-expected numbers and a lousy reaction from the market.

  • J. Crew (JCG) will beat where it guided to, Nordstrom (JWN) will be solid, and Target (TGT) will beat. That is, if you wanted specific names and opinions along with your idle abstractions.

  • Minyan "Knock Nock" emails me that Steak n Shake (SNS) last Friday beat earnings and announced that its corporate name would henceforth be... Biglari Holdings. "Big". "Larry". "Holdings"?!!!!. Are any of you prepared to let Big Larry know this idea is dog food or is it up to my column? Too late!

  • Isn't it time for Cup o' Noodles if Steak n Shake is too far a drive?
Jeff Macke, Todd Harrison and 30 more top traders share their thoughts in real-time on Buzz & Banter. Take a FREE 14 day trial today to have a pro trading desk on your desktop. Learn more.
< Previous
  • 1
Next >
Positions in JWN, JCG, SDS

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Featured Videos