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Ticker Shock: Four Reasons TiVo's Missing the Show


Thursday's top stories and stocks with potential to move.

My oldest kid has a huge soccer tournament coming up this weekend. The logistics involved in planning the event are simply unbelievable: Which parent is bringing orange slices, napkins, and bagels so they can refuel between each of the four games? What color uniforms are they going to wear for each game? What fields are they playing on? Man, Gulf War strategy was easier than this.

Asian stocks lost some ground overnight. The Hang Seng and the Nikkei were off 1.04% and 1.56%, respectively. Meanwhile, European stocks were a bit of a mixed bag earlier this morning. And here in the States, we're currently trading lower.

Here's what I'm focused on this fine Thursday morning:

TiVo, Inc
The DVR company put up a loss of $0.03 in the second quarter. To its credit, that was better than the nickel-a-share loss the Street had been expecting. Furthermore, it beat on the top line.

Some thoughts:

1. The following line in the release caught my eye: "TiVo-Owned subscription gross additions for the second quarter were approximately 31,000, compared to 36,000 gross additions for the year-ago period." Over the next couple of quarters, if the economy is improving, I'd like to see some year-over-year improvements.

2. Don't hate me but I do find it difficult to get all worked up, given the $0.20 loss its expected to put out this year and the $0.12 loss its expected to kick out next year. I'd like to know when it's going to show me the money.

3. The stock has had a pretty big percentage move over the last few months. I wouldn't be surprised to see some profit-taking.

4. If it's not obvious, I'm as cool as a cucumber on this one.

Toll Brothers (TOL):
There were three good-sized positives that I saw in the ritzy homebuilder's third-quarter release:

Excluding items, the company earned $3.7 million in the period (pre-tax). Revenues appeared to be slightly ahead of the estimate. And the following line caught my eye: "FY 2009's third-quarter-end backlog was up 3% in units compared to FY 2009's second-quarter-end backlog of 1,581 units, marking the first time that backlog units had increased from one quarter to the next in more than three years."

My thoughts (turn your heads, Toll bulls):

1. I'm not denying that there's a glimmer of light shining through the tunnel. But at the same time, I didn't see anything earth-shattering here, or anything that truly justifies its now-more-than-$23 stock price.

2. If this market corrects itself, which I think it will, the stock could take a bit of a pounding. My gut tells me I'll have the chance to bottom-fish the shares in the teens in the not-too-distant future.

For my prior take on Toll, click here.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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