Swine Flu: A Frontline Report
By Kevin Depew Apr 28, 2009 11:20 am
International economist serves up breaking video.
The number of deaths officially attributed to the swine flu increased to as many as 152 this morning, all in Mexico. The number of confirmed cases in the U.S. stands at 50. The World Health Organization yesterday raised its pandemic alert level to 4 on a scale of 1-6. And Bloomberg is now reporting there is increasing demand for antiviral drugs, hand sanitizers and face masks. Meanwhile, there continue to be conflicting reports coming out of Mexico about the severity of the cases and the possibility that the outbreak and its spread are being under reported. Below are three video reports Minyanville's Laurie Petersen commissioned from her friend, a and current Mexico City resident, Dyana Pari Nafissi.
One of the remarkable things about the Internet is how its immediacy can be leveraged to report on unfolding events in real time. This impact is even more dramatic when combined with video.
Dyana moved to Mexico City in 2006 and recently completed her coursework for a Global MBA from ITESM (Mexico) and Thunderbird (US). Building upon her experience as a top financial advisor for a major Financial company in San Francisco, Dyana is involved in the Private Capital community in Mexico City and currently consults in International Business Development for infrastructure companies.
A specialist in both Western and Eastern capital, Dyana's innovative business development is recognized both professionally and academically. A Humanitarian Economist, Dyana wakes up every day ready to put her financial savvy and cross cultural skills to work to make
this world a better place. Dyana will graduate with her MBA in June and, along with her consulting, will also pursue her career as a Global Financial Journalist based in the center of Mexico City.
See the rest of the videos here.
In addition to these reports exclusively for Minyanville, Dyana has been posting other updates about daily life in Mexico City since the swine flu outbreak began on her Youtube page.
For a perspective on Mexican markets, see the MXF and MXE.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
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2009-04-28 07:21:26
real time video reporting via the internet
wow, really wonderful stuff
only wish the multiple available videos hadn't all come on at the same time ;-)
other than that, great use of the buzz!
thanks!
only wish the multiple available videos hadn't all come on at the same time ;-)
other than that, great use of the buzz!
thanks!
2009-04-28 08:14:17
Disconnect
Listening to the radio on the way home, quite a few people interviewed think it is media hype. They don't understand the severity or don't trust the media. Probably a little of both.
2009-04-28 10:05:28
agree
plus it can be an issue if you read the 'ville at work (like i do) and forget to mute the sound
2009-04-28 12:45:09
Disconnect
We'll work on vids running simultaneously.
Re: the "media hype": if the media wasn't reporting on it, there would be a "massive coverup" going on.So it's lose-lose. Anyone in media understands they are damned if they do and damned if they don't. Those who are shrugging it off as "media hype" do not understand flu transmission and spread or the ramifications of pandemics. Yes, there are many diseases, including Malaria, which kill more people than swine flu does. What is important, however, is how quickly the virus is mutating and recombining to form other strands that could potentially be far far worse than what is presently being seen. Meanwhile, WHO raised the pandemic phase to 4 of 6, which means it is now spread human-to-human in a sustained fashion. Phase 5 and 6 are simply widspread categorizations. So raising it to 4 is significant. The important points to take away for me are 1) flu pandemics, even outbreaks of seasonal flu, peak about 90 days after introduction and we are only in the U.S. about 7 days into this 2) CDC and DHSS have each stressed that this will get worse, and we should believe them 3) so far a couple of antivirals seem effective in fighting this 4) the mortality rate will likely not be known for weeks and even the 1918 spanish flu had a mortality rate of "just" 2.5% while certainly being a disastrous pandemic.
Re: the "media hype": if the media wasn't reporting on it, there would be a "massive coverup" going on.So it's lose-lose. Anyone in media understands they are damned if they do and damned if they don't. Those who are shrugging it off as "media hype" do not understand flu transmission and spread or the ramifications of pandemics. Yes, there are many diseases, including Malaria, which kill more people than swine flu does. What is important, however, is how quickly the virus is mutating and recombining to form other strands that could potentially be far far worse than what is presently being seen. Meanwhile, WHO raised the pandemic phase to 4 of 6, which means it is now spread human-to-human in a sustained fashion. Phase 5 and 6 are simply widspread categorizations. So raising it to 4 is significant. The important points to take away for me are 1) flu pandemics, even outbreaks of seasonal flu, peak about 90 days after introduction and we are only in the U.S. about 7 days into this 2) CDC and DHSS have each stressed that this will get worse, and we should believe them 3) so far a couple of antivirals seem effective in fighting this 4) the mortality rate will likely not be known for weeks and even the 1918 spanish flu had a mortality rate of "just" 2.5% while certainly being a disastrous pandemic.
2009-04-28 12:56:02
Any way for me (or you guys) to set up these pages so that Minyanville Videos don't run automatically? Is there a way that we can just hit the play button rather than have it play immediately when we open the page? It gets very annoying when i want to read an article and the audio comes on at the same time.
Thanx a lot!
Thanx a lot!
2009-04-28 17:01:32
Disconnect
The folks being interviewed were heading out on a cruise to Mexico, they''l find out if it's hype soon enough.
2009-04-30 15:42:08
Disconnect
" 1) flu pandemics, even outbreaks of seasonal flu, peak about 90 days after introduction and we are only in the U.S. about 7 days into this "
That's what so hypish about it right now. We don't know how this turns out. The flu could get worse, it could spread, or it could fizzle out.
Honestly, if the flu was worth panicking over, we probably would not have enough warning away. The 1918 flu spread in 2-4 months in an era when people did not travel and when they did, it took days.
All bets are off an era when practically anyone in the US can jump in a car or plane and be a 1000 miles a way in less than a day. A week might be long enough to spread the flu to critical levels long before anyone sounded the alarm.
That's what so hypish about it right now. We don't know how this turns out. The flu could get worse, it could spread, or it could fizzle out.
Honestly, if the flu was worth panicking over, we probably would not have enough warning away. The 1918 flu spread in 2-4 months in an era when people did not travel and when they did, it took days.
All bets are off an era when practically anyone in the US can jump in a car or plane and be a 1000 miles a way in less than a day. A week might be long enough to spread the flu to critical levels long before anyone sounded the alarm.
2009-04-30 16:43:56
Disconnect
There are a few of things i think obscuring the severity of this. 1) people don't understand typical flu mortality is .01% 2) they don't understand the significance that a new virus has crossed from animals to humans 3) they misunderstand the fact that although even during spanish flu pandemic 97% of people who caught spanish flu did not die 4) the danger is that this is the first of what will be many mini-pandemics that will prove to be another deflationary headwind for global economies. That last point is not a health issue, but when your health agencies are part of the government it is nonetheless a reality. There is a difference between hype and concern. There is reason for concern.
Moreover, it is important to understand that the chief reason people should avoid putting themselves at risk from getting this flu is NOT because they may die, but because every host of a new strain of flu INCREASES the probability of it mutating into something else that during the next wave will kill someone or increase the mortality rate.
Meanwhile, people who are out there "braving it" in flu-prone areas are really taking personal actions with longer-term unintended consequences.
Moreover, it is important to understand that the chief reason people should avoid putting themselves at risk from getting this flu is NOT because they may die, but because every host of a new strain of flu INCREASES the probability of it mutating into something else that during the next wave will kill someone or increase the mortality rate.
Meanwhile, people who are out there "braving it" in flu-prone areas are really taking personal actions with longer-term unintended consequences.
2009-04-30 22:01:22
Disconnect
That's very interesting stuff. Thanks for the info.
On 4) I think this is a very interesting point. Economics and the vitality of a population are completely intertwined. However, just to be gruesome about it, doesn't a reduction in population create inflation (too much money, not enough people)?? Would we end up with more population but they are less likely to work (deflationary)??
I do agree that people who are traveling to Mexico right with no need are just dumb. On the other hand, well.... I still think the kind of pandemics that are worthy of the current level of panic (I just got an email about midwives "mobilizing") aren't going to give us time to mobilize. :(
On 4) I think this is a very interesting point. Economics and the vitality of a population are completely intertwined. However, just to be gruesome about it, doesn't a reduction in population create inflation (too much money, not enough people)?? Would we end up with more population but they are less likely to work (deflationary)??
I do agree that people who are traveling to Mexico right with no need are just dumb. On the other hand, well.... I still think the kind of pandemics that are worthy of the current level of panic (I just got an email about midwives "mobilizing") aren't going to give us time to mobilize. :(
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