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Answers I Really Wanna Know: How Much Geopolitical Strife Is Priced Into Crude?


Iran opens naval base at Strait of Hormuz.

  • Can President Tyler affect yet another Turnaround Tuesday?

  • Particularly given the "flight to safety" trade unwound overnight as the Yen fell the most in two weeks against the Euro and U.S. treasuries fielded supply?

  • Wanna wager a buck that there was significant currency manip… er, intervention?

  • Isn't the only difference between intervention and manipulation communication?

  • The tricky Nikkei tacked on 6.4% after dipping below NKY 7000 for the first time in 26 years?

  • Twenty-six years?

  • If the NASDAQ bubble was bigger than the Nikkei and the resulting debt and derivative bubble is the MOAB (mother of all bubbles), how many lost decades await the United States?

  • How's the venison?

  • How much "geopolitical angst premium" is currently priced into the crude?

  • Particularly given that Iran just opened a naval base at the Straight of Hormuz?

  • Why can't we all just get along?

  • Given the last four October rallies on the 13th (936 points), 16th (401 points), 20th (413 points) and 23rd (172 points) were followed by two day declines of 810 points, 286 points, 746 points and 515 points respectively, doesn't Hoofy have to wrestle the benefit of the doubt from Boo?

  • In the absence of water, are people so thirsty that they'll drink the sand?

  • Do they drink the sand because they're thirsty or do they drink the sand because they don't know the difference?

  • Between the haphazard tape and the regulatory scrapes, it's shocking that hedge funds are on track to post their worst monthly decline in a decade (and, perhaps, ever)?

  • Will forced selling continue to weigh on the fray or will the other side of our "Fund v. Fund" dynamic begin to manifest?

  • Particularly if S&P 840 (the October 1oth intraday low) can somehow hold?

  • What's the single safest place for your kids to trick or treat?

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Positions in gold, crude proxies

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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