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Retracements, Decline Should Give Pause


Only time will heal disintegration of past year.


A new month, and a new week following an historic October, a month that has the reputation of being a bear killer. Will it work again? With so many market participants and letter writers romancing the notion?

The short answer: Possibly. But, that doesn't mean Boo is headed to the Olympics any time soon. Only the behavior on the next "test," whenever that should come (and generally it should be some distance - 2 months, at least) will prove the significance of any bottom.

The S&P has retraced 50% of its range from 1892, when it was at approximately 100. After all, a 50% decline off the 2000 high worked precisely in 2002. So now we have a 50% retracement of the range from the birth of the mother of all bulls - intellectually tempting, isn't it?

However, the angle of attack -- the decline playing out in only 1 year -- should give us pause. That, along with the more than 50% retracements off the highs of many leading stocks.

There's a proclivity for the human mind to extrapolate back to the last low (2002) to find benchmarks. It may be a trap, a 6-month or so rally phase notwithstanding, if and when a successful test is carved out. But my current thinking is that ONLY TIME will heal the disintegration suffered over the last year - disintegration in price and sentiment.

Such are the comments offered in my report this morning regarding the root causes of the crash in 1929 and what the market knew and when it knew it. Is the market the Great Discounter, as it is so often crowned? You may want to consider a free trial if you aren't familiar with my report.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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