A Case for the Bulls?
Three benchmarks are at hand - but we may still face years of chronic underperformance, undervaluation.
Well, relative to precedents established during the Great Depression, the last 2-month leg down in the S&P into March 6 is the second shallowest and briefest. At the same time, the current retrace has gained more in percentage terms than any of its 1930 predecessors.
However, if the secular bear runs 13 to 14 years counting from 2000, that means that even if a price low has been seen, there could be years of chronic underperformance and undervaluation - even if one were to assume that stocks represented "value" in April 2009.
Cyclically, 3 important benchmarks are at hand:
- The mid-April rally high in 1930 post mid-November crash low in 1929.
- The early June anniversary of the great 60-year cycle, which in 1949, marked the beginning of the Great Bull Market into 1966.
- The anniversary of the birth of the NYSE on May 17 (note the pre-crash peak on May 19, 2008).
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Daily Recap Newsletter