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Random Thoughts: There's a Sale at (for) Pennies!


What are today's levels telling you?

Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter. It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also Mickey Mantle Won't Pay Our Rent, Dusting Off the Bull Costume, Miso Horny?, Capitulation Now? and The Unfreezing Process.

Watch For Sale! Jon Varvatos Cashmere Hoodie For Sale! Cat for Sale! - 1:26 pm

I've experienced my fair share of panics--LTCM, Thai Baht,, although none of us have experienced this before, I can say with confidence that emotional decisions have a way of coming back to bite you in the arse. That's not to say we should hope--that's not a viable investment vehicle--but lucidity is our friend as we edge through this mend.

What's going on inside my crowded keppe? Among other things, the following:

  • Demi Moore top-ticked in Ghost.

  • Good traders know how to make money, great traders know how to take a loss.

  • Bad times define good friends just like bad seasons define good fans.

  • We'll most certainly see a sharp rally attempt today but will any sticky green substance have to wait till Turnaround Tuesday?

  • Technical analysis, by definition, breaks during a market crash.

  • NYSE internals? 3113 red for every 98 ahead. In all my years trading, I've never seen it that lopsided.

  • Dry powder was made for days like today but alas, so was discipline. The balance between those two, in my view, will define our success.

  • I've got two legs in my bull costume (50% conviction on the long side). If the best fades are the toughest fades, I'm in good shape (gulp).

  • On the upside, the Maven is coming to town next month for her 88th. No matter what happens, they can't take that away from us.

  • Engine Room, More Scream!

Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 1:47 pm

  • Is it bullish that we're 35% from the October high?

  • Or bearish that we're 35% above the 2002 low?

  • Is it bullish that some well known pundits are screaming "guns and butter" as they've done at previous lows?

  • Or bearish that folks continue to trot out on TV trying to call a bottom?

  • Is it bullish that there are 87 advancing stocks out of 3210 issues?

  • Or do technicals not work during market crashes?

  • Where is the "lower crude is bullish for equities" crowd?

  • Have we established a cycle high for the VXO?

  • Or is Bachman Turner Overdrive on deck?

  • Do you see the underlying bid in Campbell Soup (CPB)?

  • Or, the udder way, the supply in Sun Trust (STI) or National City (NCC)?

  • Rally during contra-hour (2:00-3:00 EST) followed by heavy close (redemptions) following by a coordinated rate cut induced Turnaround Tuesday?

  • Or is that just what they want us to think?

  • Are you viewing obstacles as opportunities are skating on your heels with your back to the net?


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