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Year-End and New-Year Indicators to Watch


Time will tell whether they play out according to the historical pattern.

If Santa hasn't yet made his way to your investment portfolio, don't despair. According to Jeffrey Hirsch (Stock Trader's Almanac), the "Santa Claus Rally" normally occurs during the last five trading days of a year and the ensuing first two trading sessions of the new year. During this seven-day period, stocks historically tend to advance (by 1.5% on average since 1950), but when recording a loss, they frequently trade much lower in the new year. Well, yesterday marked the official beginning of the Santa Claus Rally period, with the Dow Jones Industrial Index off to a 0.5% start.

Another old stock market saw tells us the first five trading days of January set the course for January (known as the "First Five Days Early Warning System"), and if the month of January is higher, there's a good chance the year will end higher, i.e. the so-called "January Barometer." Every down January since 1950 has been followed by a new or continuing bear market or a flat year. "As January goes, so goes the year," said Hirsch.

Lastly, according to Hirsch, the "December Low Indicator" says that should the Dow Jones Industrial Index close below its December low any time during the first quarter, it's frequently an excellent warning sign of lower levels. The number to watch is the low of 10,286 recorded by the Dow on December 8.

Time will tell whether the year-end/new-year indicators play out according to the historical pattern. Meanwhile, we'll have some fun tracking how it pans out.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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