Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Take a Plunge
Your daily Buzz & Banter highlights...
I'm a buyer of Calgon, in SIZE! - Todd Harrison - 3:28 PM
One of the more frustrating sessions in recent memory edges to the close as the bovine hang down by their toes. It's Nosty out there, not just with regard to the price action but in terms of liquidity. Heck, as I'm writing this post, the S's just jumped 20 handles. 20. It used to take us a week to get that much cumulative movement.
Everyone gets it wrong at times (hand up) but there is a lesson to be learned here. Case in point was Paulson's comments about the "repricing of risk." This is the same fella that has been telling us for months that subprime is contained. The simple truth is that the market is smarter than all of us (again, hand raised) and the onus is on us to manage our own risk profiles.
Perhaps the folks on TV are right--- maybe this is healthy. Truth is, I'm not smart enough to know. What I do know is that by the time the evidence is apparent through economic figures or reflected in earnings, the market, as a forward-looking discounting mechanism, will have already baked it into its cake.
For my part, as I type with one stubby hand (I'm holding a shovel with the other), I'm paring some of my in-the-hole exposure and trying to shift a very bad day into a sorta bad day (with lost opportunities and lessons in tow). In that vein, please lemme hop and chop and get to work.
Fare ye well into the bell.
The Pain Locker - Jeff Macke - 2:40 PM
So... I spent the morning locked in legal meetings only to walk in to find the Dow down over 300 points. Forget subprime, housing and carry-trade woes; I'm blaming the legal system for this mess. Here's what I'm thinking as I play a rather fevered game of catch-up...
- I felt like a world class Nervous Nelly, Talking Head Punk suggesting a sale of Goldman Sachs (GS) on Tuesday, one day after pondering a buy. Feeling better about the idea now and agree with Prof. Cooper... let it (and the market) prove itself.
- The lesson from my ill-fated Goldman excursion isn't "Jeffmacke is Sweet!". It's discipline. You can try almost anything as long as you have an exit plan and a willingness to use it, if need be.
- Wanna be constructive today? Make yourself a list of companies you want to own (in a long-term, Buffett-ian way) and set some price targets. Using the 1520-ish S&P resistance we closed at yesterday, I'm lopping 15% - 20% off the prices of some faves and making a shopping list.
That exercise is giving me: McDonald's (MCD) at $45; Target (TGT) around $55; Hewlett- Packard (HPQ) somewhere around $40 etc. It's not a dramatic, exciting, plan on a down huge day, but it beats buying on hope.
- Billy, Don't be a Hero.
- For what it's worth, the first place I logged into when I wanted to get a handle on the price action today was Minyanville. I'm talking my "book" but Todd-O and the Team, old and new members, are a must-read when the fur is flying.
Looking Where They Ain't - Kevin Depew - 12:42 PM
On a day like this with panic building, see where the green is on the screen, and look for relative strength. Some notable names stand out.
- Corn Products (CPO), up 1.42%. A move to 47 breaks a double top, a move to 42 if it comes in with the rest of the market sets up a bullish shakeout pattern.
- Procter & Gamble (PG), up .9%. A move to 65 breaks a triple top, good support has formed at 61.
- UST (UST), up 2%. We highlighted this earlier as a potential DeMark buy signal combined with a bullish shakeout pattern.
The Only Thing We Have To Fear... - Jeffrey Cooper - 11:22 AM
Fear of the unknown is the greatest fear, especially when it come to the markets. I don't know the reason the futures saw such slippage before the open, but it is not oil or housing.
Be that as it may, we are aware, but are not being told. That I find scary.
I just received an email from a Minyan who guesses the slippage was Middle-East related.
A measured move off the 'stabilized', down 16 points on the S&P, projects a break off of the June low today, if another selling squall begins.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Daily Recap Newsletter