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business newsMiddle East Tensions Send Crude Oil Higher
By
Rod David
Feb 14, 2012 8:40 am
A breakdown of yesterday's seven most active commodity futures.
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The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.
Yesterday’s Highlight: Crude Oil captured two headlines Monday. One, for reacting to heightened tensions between Israel and Iran. And second, for a glitch that briefly halted afternoon trading. The halt has passed, but the tensions are rising.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
Yesterday’s Highlight: Crude Oil captured two headlines Monday. One, for reacting to heightened tensions between Israel and Iran. And second, for a glitch that briefly halted afternoon trading. The halt has passed, but the tensions are rising.
Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX, ETF: (UUP), (UDN)
Friday’s gap up never extended higher, making its retracement likely. Monday’s open did gap down to test Thursday’s highs, but not to fill Thursday’s gap. Attacks on the lows are possible, but not signaled.
Eurodollar
Mar Contract EC, ETF: (FXE)
Friday’s gap down to 1.3185 extended no further intraday, making its recovery likely. In fact, Monday’s open gapped back up, not quite to Thursday’s 1.3288 close, but still holding above Friday’s 1.3200 high. Now closing under 1.3165 would signal a drop back to recent lows in the 1.3045 area. The rally could resume first, but there is no attractive buy signal at this time.
Gold
Apr Contract GC, ETF: (GLD)
Monday’s session fluctuated alternatively around Friday’s close, ending the day almost unchanged. Ultimately, 1720.00-1722.00 held its noon hour test as support, but did not launch a new upleg, so there remains potential to extend the downleg.
Silver
Mar Contract SI, ETF: (SLV)
A close under 33.40 is still needed to confirm last week’s break under 33.60 has reversed momentum down. Intraday lows attacked the confirmation, but it held. The hesitation was not exploited by a recovery, so there remains potential to extend the downleg. But the gap up to 34.00 may be filled first.
30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US, ETF: (TLT)
Gapping down Monday back under 142-12 to test 142-05 gained no traction. The balance of the morning bounced to fill the gap back up to Friday’s 142-30 close. The afternoon ranged narrowly between 142-05 and 142-12. Another bounce cannot be discounted, but almost any close under 142-05 is likely to resume the drop to 140-00.
Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL, ETF: (USO)
Gapping up above 99.15, probing 100.00, and ultimately closing at fresh highs all contributed to a rejection of the ongoing range below. So long as 100.00 and 99.15 hold as support, 103.00 and potentially 111.00 are in-play.
Natural Gas
Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)
A probe of recent lows did not gain traction. Nor was the probe rejected. Closing above the 2.50 area would be of interest, but there is otherwise no active signal.
Mar Contract DX, ETF: (UUP), (UDN)
Friday’s gap up never extended higher, making its retracement likely. Monday’s open did gap down to test Thursday’s highs, but not to fill Thursday’s gap. Attacks on the lows are possible, but not signaled.
Eurodollar
Mar Contract EC, ETF: (FXE)
Friday’s gap down to 1.3185 extended no further intraday, making its recovery likely. In fact, Monday’s open gapped back up, not quite to Thursday’s 1.3288 close, but still holding above Friday’s 1.3200 high. Now closing under 1.3165 would signal a drop back to recent lows in the 1.3045 area. The rally could resume first, but there is no attractive buy signal at this time.
Gold
Apr Contract GC, ETF: (GLD)
Monday’s session fluctuated alternatively around Friday’s close, ending the day almost unchanged. Ultimately, 1720.00-1722.00 held its noon hour test as support, but did not launch a new upleg, so there remains potential to extend the downleg.
Silver
Mar Contract SI, ETF: (SLV)
A close under 33.40 is still needed to confirm last week’s break under 33.60 has reversed momentum down. Intraday lows attacked the confirmation, but it held. The hesitation was not exploited by a recovery, so there remains potential to extend the downleg. But the gap up to 34.00 may be filled first.
30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US, ETF: (TLT)
Gapping down Monday back under 142-12 to test 142-05 gained no traction. The balance of the morning bounced to fill the gap back up to Friday’s 142-30 close. The afternoon ranged narrowly between 142-05 and 142-12. Another bounce cannot be discounted, but almost any close under 142-05 is likely to resume the drop to 140-00.
Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL, ETF: (USO)
Gapping up above 99.15, probing 100.00, and ultimately closing at fresh highs all contributed to a rejection of the ongoing range below. So long as 100.00 and 99.15 hold as support, 103.00 and potentially 111.00 are in-play.
Natural Gas
Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)
A probe of recent lows did not gain traction. Nor was the probe rejected. Closing above the 2.50 area would be of interest, but there is otherwise no active signal.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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