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Daily Commodity Spot: Gold Intraday Rally Breaks Through Major Resistance Levels


A breakdown of the day's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight Gold's $60 intraday rally off the morning's lows broke through several relevant resistance levels above. The session ended while probing a big resistance, suggesting that any immediate dip would be recovered.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX, (UUP), (UDN)
Wednesday's gap up to retest Tuesday's high created extra room to absorb Wednesday afternoon's downdraft. So, despite tumbling to probe under Monday's lows, Monday's lows were still being tested at the close. Closing Thursday above 79.85 would signal that a bottom was in, but the trend otherwise remains down.

Mar Contract EC, (FXE)
Wednesday morning's open gapped down to retest Tuesday's low, which was itself a test of the 1.2955 pullback limit. It held its retest. Recovering into the FOMC news accelerated exponentially to fresh highs at 1.3108, above prior highs. Even an interim dip held above prior highs, suggesting the rally's momentum remains intact.

Feb Contract GC, (GLD)
Despite reacting down Monday from within $2 of the 1684.00 target, the target remained in-play. And despite the deep reaction down to 1649.20 Wednesday morning, the afternoon's reaction to the FOMC news rallied sharply to probe above 1700.00. Big resistance is only slightly higher at 1718.00-1720.00, while an interim pullback has room down to 1702.00.

Mar Contract SI, (SLV)
Wednesday morning's dip was a day too late to easily gain traction. But it recovered a little too easily. That didn't stop extending sharply higher in reaction to the FOMC news, coming within 20 cents of the 33.55 target. Tuesday and Wednesday's shallow pullbacks suggest that buying pressure will be expended at the target.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US, (TLT)
Tuesday's shallow dip left open the potential for a break above 141-14 to test 142-00. It tested 143-16 - overshoot #1. I noted at the time how weird this pattern was, especially if it were to close above 143-04. It closed back under 142-00 - overshoot #2. This volatility will earn a few days rest of narrow ranging, but not yet. The drop's momentum remains intact and targeting 140-00 so long as 142-05 were to hold as resistance.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL, (USO)
Only slightly higher highs Wednesday seemed oblivious to other market behavior. But this does suggest that any strength has been related to geopolitics, and not necessarily due to accumulation. That's bad news, if a rally were to begin. Otherwise, closing under 98.25 would launch a downleg.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract NG, (UNG)
The 2.81 objective was satisfied Wednesday. The session also probed a third consecutive higher high. This is in-line with the rally's setup that expected this timing for a near-term peak. The pattern should now enter a period of basing.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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