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Daily Commodity Spot: Can Precious Metals Patterns Sustain New Trending?


A breakdown of the day's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Precious metals surged above their multi-session consolidation ranges. But can their patterns sustain new trending?

1. Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX, ETF: ((UUP), (UDN))
Gapping down and ranging sideways throughout Tuesday has potential to become an Island Reversal if Wednesday's open were to gap up. There is otherwise no active pattern.

2. Eurodollar
Mar Contract EC, ETF: (FXE)
Tuesday's gap up extended no higher, and the balance of the session ranged sideways. The required retest of Sunday night's lows should be underway by Wednesday's close to avoid extending the bounce up to 1.2810.

3. Gold
Feb Contract GC, ETF: (GLD)
Days spent avoiding the 1610.50 sell signal while ranging under 1620.00 resistance were rewarded Tuesday by surging overnight and then extending intraday up to 1641.00. The balance of the session ranged back down to 1631.00. The pattern is vulnerable to gapping down and trending lower, but no other distributive pattern is in play.

4. Silver
Mar Contract SI, ETF: (SLV)
Coiling at the range's lower-end without breaking lower finally delivered fresh highs. The overnight surge produced a gap up above weeks' worth of prior highs around 29.70 and higher highs intraday testing 30.30. Pullbacks have almost no room to maneuver without sellers gaining traction, so any dip must be extremely short and shallow, - preferably no deeper than 29.60 - to maintain the breakout.

5. 30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US, ETF: (TLT)
The open's gap down to 142-05 support was premature to resume the decline. The gap back to Monday's 143-00 close was filled, and held as resistance. Now only a close under 142-12 is needed to trigger a new downleg. But there is still potential to probe Monday's high up to 144-00 while waiting.

6. Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL, ETF: (USO)
A retest of 103.00 had become increasingly likely as long as it had taken for its first test to react down, not to mention the reaction's sluggishness. Despite Monday's new pullback low down to 100.25, 103.00 was retested before Tuesday's open. It held as resistance, but there is potential to become a new upleg targeting 111.00 so long as 102.00 were to hold as support.

7. Natural Gas
Mar Contract NG, ETF: (UNG)
The opportunity to close just slightly higher above 3.09 was rejected in favor of diving to new trend lows. The bottoming pattern is invalid if Wednesday's open does not recover immediately and sustainably.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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