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Could Mosaic See Growth After Weak First Quarter?


Long term has potential, but no catalysts in near term.

For the second time over the last few weeks I looked up after the close the other day and heard someone on my floor yelling,"We're barring the trade!" I'm thinking, what are they talking about? Which stock? What happened? Apparently they were talking fantasy football and arguing over a player trade. It almost elevated to fisticuffs. True story.

Asian stocks rose overnight. The Hang Seng was up a hefty 1.87% and the Nikkei rose 0.18%. European stocks were in positive territory as well early this morning. And here in the US, we're currently trading higher.

Here's what I'm seeing this morning:

Mosaic (MOS):
The one-time high-flying fertilizer company was out with its first-quarter numbers.

It put up $0.23 a share, which wasn't so swift because the estimate I'm seeing was for a gain of $0.35. Meanwhile, its revenues came in at $1.46 billion. The Street had been looking for $1.54 billion.

My two cents:

1. I wasn't too excited about the quarter and I think this year's estimate could come down a smidge. However, I do believe this company has the potential to experience some decent growth in the next several years and I don't think between 14 and 15 times this year's current estimate is too much to cough up.

2. That said, I personally wouldn't hop aboard unless I truly had that longer-term investment horizon, because near-term, I don't see any huge catalysts.

3. With the shares well off their all-time highs, I'd like to see insiders belly up in the open market. It would make existing shareholders feel a wee bit better.

Price check on the bulldozer in aisle four!

There was some news out that the Illinois-based heavy-duty-machinery maker plans to raise its prices a bit.

In any case, I'm using this news as an excuse to weigh in on the overall situation.

1. I've been wrong on this company. In spite of my hand wringing and concern that a sluggish economy would keep the stock down, it's actually had a fair amount of wind at its back. To boot, it's trading somewhat near its 52-week high.

2. I'm iffy about the idea of jumping in full-force at these levels. But if it hits a new high, I could see it motoring above $60. Interestingly, data shows that estimates for this year and next were up over the past 30 days, which is nice to see, too.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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