It's All Just Monopoly Money
I've been struck by how few people seem to understand how all these events are related, in that at the root, they each have irresponsible money-printing as the cause; the sociological and psychological phenomena that go with it (i.e., the regulators not doing their jobs) are just part of the process. Each problem led to the next, where one year ago, the financial system was bailed out at the risk of the country ultimately enduring a funding crisis.
One fact that strikes me is how few people seem to have been able to protect themselves from the first two (even though they were so obvious) and how few will be able to do so on this third, huge problem. In my own little world, I wrote until I was blue in the face about the risks inherent to both of those bubbles (as did other people), but still only a small subset of folks managed to avoid calamity.
Similarly, I've droned on forever about the weakness in the dollar and the necessity for folks to protect themselves via precious metals or some other idea. (What exactly, I don't know, lest I would have said it -- but there will turn out to have been other options.)
Let's face it: Dollars -- the things we call money -- are simply pieces of green paper. They're just a state of mind. They have no intrinsic value and are just like wampum. Thus, they're not worth anything. Furthermore, all paper currencies historically have lost all of their value.Give It Up for the Real Rock Star
On the other hand, gold -- which has been in an eight-year bull market but still receives far more derision than it does praise -- has been money for literally thousands of years. Meanwhile, the green paper has lost 97% of its value versus gold since Nixon closed the gold window a little less than forty years ago. Yet, people seem to be terrified of owning gold.
For the last month or so, gold has traded at $1,000, plus or minus. Yet, what I see is a tremendous amount of angst on the part of those who hold gold due to fears about an imminent collapse in the price. But the point of this is to encourage people to think about what's liable to happen to the green piece of paper that I've nicknamed the "xera." (A continuation of Xerox, zero, and dollar.
Fed money-printing in the last year -- to create its own bailout and finance other government bailouts -- is the functional equivalent of the government saying that you can take the Monopoly game out of the closet, grab all the colored pieces of paper, put three or four zeroes on the end of each bill, then go out and spend it.
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His rationale for and breakdown of (in anticipation) the events that have transpired, including current government response, was articulated clearly and consistently every step of the frakking path. REALLY LISTENING to his thought has saved (and made) my fam and i money. I strongly recommend his dirtcheap daily letter (i haven't missed a word since inception, including many days i was backpacking through countryside 1/2way around the globe.)
btw,checkout his fave charity
http://www.shepherdstherapy.org/
which has been a pleasure with which to involve myself.
I mean, you can't eat it, or live in it. There's some value for gold in manufacturing and semiconductors, but not, I think $1000 per oz. Isn't it's worth just like currency, i.e. it's worth what it is because we (the market) say it is? Maybe I've been reading too much DePew, and experiencing "the crisis of the Real". I'm just tryihng to get my head around this.
1. Worth is discovered in the market price of the asset.
2. Worth is defined by what use the item is, to you, over it's lifetime.
"you can't eat it, or live in it." is obviously a utilitarian approach (#2, above). Which is fine; but such items are consumed as they are used; they are wasting assets. Gold and currency, on the other hand, are supposed to not be wasting assets; "storehouse of value" is the term of art associated with this concept.
Regrettably, currency is a wasting asset, at least insofar as inflation expectations are realized. (waxing snarky, I'd venture that "the full faith and credit" of national institutions is a wasting asset, as well..) That leaves us looking for an asset, that is specifically NOT meant to be used up over time, to employ as "storehouse of value", on an envisioned timeframe that is quasi-eternal. It is hard to even call a "storehouse of value" play an "investment" - I think the latter term is over-used - but I digress.
..which leads us right back to gold, and platinum. (NOT silver, as that is a metal with many industrial uses, and much of the annual production does get expended in this way.) There may be others, as Fleck humbly notes, but I can't think of any either, offhand.
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Personally, I am not rich enough that deliberately removing some part of my wealth from productive use for safety is something I'd consider. I might go long gold; I might go long Oil. But these would be short-term spec exercises, not "store of value" operations.
Dollars can be manufactured as long as we have trees. We have a heck of a lot of trees and we can keep growing trees forever. So theoretically, we can have a very large money supply that we can expand at any time and at any rate. Money will always have the risk of being counterfeited, so we'll always have this unknown variable of how much is the money supply being devalued just because of counterfeiters. People that have gold don't have to worry about that.
Farm land??
Seriously, better to have a place to grow a little food, collect some clean water and wait the whole storm out. Even the mother of all hyperinflations in Weimar Germany burned itself out in less then 2 years.
It is said that one can't eat money, or gold, or live in either one, etc. But over the last 'x' number of years, as homeowners re-financed, took out HELOC's, and otherwise used their homes and leveraged assets as ATM machines, what did they do with all the 'equity'? For a majority, they in fact did eat the money. Dined out every meal, spent it frivolously, etc. They certainly didn't buy gold, put it in the bank, or in anything with a 'store of value', did they?
When the conversation comes to inflation/deflation, my small mind conjures the image of everyone bringing trash bags full of dollars to a huge warehouse, and once the warehouse is full we push down the plunger and blow the thing sky high. Everyone cashed out and then we detonated the cash. So the debt from the borrowing is still there, but the printing of the money by the fed has served to replace the amount the dynamite(housing market) took care of. So no one has any more money than they had before, and most people never got their trash bags refilled, so where's the inflation? I see the debt, but I don't see where all the extra money is that is going to be chasing all the assets....
Unused, low -priced and -taxed land, though.. there might be something there to ponder. Drive a hard bargain, of course. And pay cash.
I think you are right in terms of the amount of debt/money destruction and creation of new money. What's different though, I think, is the change in preferences for different assets and reduction in the velocity of money. We will see reduced appetite for consumption of those previously "overpriced" assets causing deflation there whereas inflation for the assets that were not relatively overpriced.
If you consider most of the overpriced assets were in the country then imports must get hurt with inflation. Even if the velocity of money comes back again, I would think preference shift will prevail and dollar will lose ground relative to the countries that produce real stuff.
We could in theory create paper currency whose volume is tied to population. That way inflation and deflation would remain in check. Banks need to be forbidden to lend out money that does not exist. Then we would not need banks at all. This won't happen, so let's look at a discussion about gold's prospects in recessions and depressions:
http://www.tradingstocks.net/ html/gold_up_or_down_in_depression.html
Gold bugs and Paper chasers remain on the same superficial investment level as a day trader, but try to throw in geo-politics and history into the discussion.
Wealth will never be realized with the hording of any medium of exchange.
seems after Prof Fleck closed his bear fund, he found a better way to short America.
Indeed, Short America is the trade of the century.
I've worked a lot less in the past two years mostly because I can't stand watching my taxes get spent so destructively. I would enjoy working more, and I would enjoy spending all that extra money, but the evils of government sicken me, so I don't.
you make such excellent points but the real question each person including yourself should ask is "What are you going to do about it?"
Knowledge without action is useless and you are better off not knowing than knowing just to gossip about it.
In essence, gossiping - which is what most Americans do - is nothing more than complaining.
I am big advocate of ignoring the news unless I am prepared to take immediate ACTION to provoke change.
Instead of feeling powerless, finger pointing blame and asking "What are "they" going to do to help me?"
You empower yourself by asking what can I do to change this? Where can I go for help? Who can I partner with? What groups can I start?
How can I assemble a mass group of people who are serious about fighting the deception and corruption we face from the super elite?
Count me in William. I am with you 100%.
James Blackburn
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