It's All Just Monopoly Money

By William Fleckenstein Oct 08, 2009 9:40 am
Everyone is playing with different amounts, but the outcome is still the same.
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I’d like to discuss human nature and the paper we call money from a slightly different perspective. I was recently thinking about what's transpired in this country in the last decade: First the equity bubble, then the real estate/credit bubble, and then the steady debasement of the dollar (where a trickle is now threatening to turn into a flood).

I've been struck by how few people seem to understand how all these events are related, in that at the root, they each have irresponsible money-printing as the cause; the sociological and psychological phenomena that go with it (i.e., the regulators not doing their jobs) are just part of the process. Each problem led to the next, where one year ago, the financial system was bailed out at the risk of the country ultimately enduring a funding crisis.

One fact that strikes me is how few people seem to have been able to protect themselves from the first two (even though they were so obvious) and how few will be able to do so on this third, huge problem. In my own little world, I wrote until I was blue in the face about the risks inherent to both of those bubbles (as did other people), but still only a small subset of folks managed to avoid calamity.

Similarly, I've droned on forever about the weakness in the dollar and the necessity for folks to protect themselves via precious metals or some other idea. (What exactly, I don't know, lest I would have said it -- but there will turn out to have been other options.)

Let's face it: Dollars -- the things we call money -- are simply pieces of green paper. They're just a state of mind. They have no intrinsic value and are just like wampum. Thus, they're not worth anything. Furthermore, all paper currencies historically have lost all of their value.

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On the other hand, gold -- which has been in an eight-year bull market but still receives far more derision than it does praise -- has been money for literally thousands of years. Meanwhile, the green paper has lost 97% of its value versus gold since Nixon closed the gold window a little less than forty years ago. Yet, people seem to be terrified of owning gold.

For the last month or so, gold has traded at $1,000, plus or minus. Yet, what I see is a tremendous amount of angst on the part of those who hold gold due to fears about an imminent collapse in the price. But the point of this is to encourage people to think about what's liable to happen to the green piece of paper that I've nicknamed the "xera." (A continuation of Xerox, zero, and dollar.

Fed money-printing in the last year -- to create its own bailout and finance other government bailouts -- is the functional equivalent of the government saying that you can take the Monopoly game out of the closet, grab all the colored pieces of paper, put three or four zeroes on the end of each bill, then go out and spend it.
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(19)
2009-10-08 10:01:55
appreciation
Fleck has consistently espoused this point of view since gold was under 300.
His rationale for and breakdown of (in anticipation) the events that have transpired, including current government response, was articulated clearly and consistently every step of the frakking path. REALLY LISTENING to his thought has saved (and made) my fam and i money. I strongly recommend his dirtcheap daily letter (i haven't missed a word since inception, including many days i was backpacking through countryside 1/2way around the globe.)
btw,checkout his fave charity
http://www.shepherdstherapy.org/
which has been a pleasure with which to involve myself.
2009-10-08 10:39:06
It doesn't matter
Currency is not an investment strategy. Banks are where poor people keep their money. Currency is ONLY for exchange. While you should have a savings account, it is not an investing strategy for exactly these reasons. What you should be doing is investing in market-updated equities because these will automatically price in inflation, whereas your savings account or CD won't. This applies to gold, securities and the like. Then the whole issue of what a dollar buys is moot. Inflation becomes a tweaking of the precision of the currency in relationship to the larger economy. But what happens when your economy is debt-laden? Well inflation only helps to pay off those debts. Something homeowners have come to rely on! Don't invest IN currency, invest WITH currency!!
2009-10-08 10:41:56
Is gold any different than paper?
Please understand, I don't mean to challenge, but there's a part of me that wonders: Is gold ay different than paper (other than the fact that it has thousands of years of history in it's corner)?

I mean, you can't eat it, or live in it. There's some value for gold in manufacturing and semiconductors, but not, I think $1000 per oz. Isn't it's worth just like currency, i.e. it's worth what it is because we (the market) say it is? Maybe I've been reading too much DePew, and experiencing "the crisis of the Real". I'm just tryihng to get my head around this.
2009-10-08 10:41:59
Parker Bros
I thought you were going to point out the fact that Parker Brothers has only printed $3.4T in monopoly money to date ($15k *250M units) which is only 1/3 the national debt. Yes folks, there is less fake, monopoly money in the world than Fed money!!
2009-10-08 11:42:08
It doesn't matter
Inflation also makes imports much more expensive, we import a great deal. If you can still find one ask a German what inflation did to them in the 1930's, it certainly mattered.
2009-10-08 11:50:48
Is gold any different than paper?
Worth. What is anything worth ? Three answers:
1. Worth is discovered in the market price of the asset.
2. Worth is defined by what use the item is, to you, over it's lifetime.

"you can't eat it, or live in it." is obviously a utilitarian approach (#2, above). Which is fine; but such items are consumed as they are used; they are wasting assets. Gold and currency, on the other hand, are supposed to not be wasting assets; "storehouse of value" is the term of art associated with this concept.

Regrettably, currency is a wasting asset, at least insofar as inflation expectations are realized. (waxing snarky, I'd venture that "the full faith and credit" of national institutions is a wasting asset, as well..) That leaves us looking for an asset, that is specifically NOT meant to be used up over time, to employ as "storehouse of value", on an envisioned timeframe that is quasi-eternal. It is hard to even call a "storehouse of value" play an "investment" - I think the latter term is over-used - but I digress.

..which leads us right back to gold, and platinum. (NOT silver, as that is a metal with many industrial uses, and much of the annual production does get expended in this way.) There may be others, as Fleck humbly notes, but I can't think of any either, offhand.
---
Personally, I am not rich enough that deliberately removing some part of my wealth from productive use for safety is something I'd consider. I might go long gold; I might go long Oil. But these would be short-term spec exercises, not "store of value" operations.
2009-10-08 11:54:44
It doesn't matter
True and false. If the price of imports was priced in terms of gold, nothing was any more expensive. However the problem is that over the short term for the German, the amount of paper needed rose faster than his pay could be adjusted. So it looks bad, feels bad, but it is a lag in wage adjustment that made the problem. Back then the problem was the limited amount of information and calculation. Today the limitation from having floating wages is purely a matter of policy. As in wage adjustments usually come once a year. With modern computing and the internet, we could calculate it minutely if needed. An at that point, the inflation only makes debt easier to pay off because debt is not inflation adjusted.


2009-10-08 11:58:00
Is gold any different than paper?
The argument, from what I've heard over the years, is that gold cannot be produced or manufactured, only mined. It doesn't decay or get used up permanently. There is only a certain amount of gold in planet earth and no more and there never will be more. So having said that, gold will always have a certain value because of it's scarcity, it can't be manufactured and the fact that it cannot be consumed either by us or by time.

Dollars can be manufactured as long as we have trees. We have a heck of a lot of trees and we can keep growing trees forever. So theoretically, we can have a very large money supply that we can expand at any time and at any rate. Money will always have the risk of being counterfeited, so we'll always have this unknown variable of how much is the money supply being devalued just because of counterfeiters. People that have gold don't have to worry about that.
2009-10-08 12:08:03
It doesn't matter
True and false. Not all debt is free from inflation, hence the variable rate lines of credit, credit cards, and mortgages for that matter. If you think that those rates won't rise when inflation kicks in I have some rather bad news for you...
2009-10-08 12:16:39
Is gold any different than paper?
"That leaves us looking for an asset, that is specifically NOT meant to be used up over time, to employ as "storehouse of value", on an envisioned timeframe that is quasi-eternal."

Farm land??
2009-10-08 12:42:10
Other assets
Prof Fleck mentioned that in hindsight there will probably be add'l asset classes that could offer protection. As someone already mentioned, arable land has to be first on that list, well above gold. Face it, if a real currency collapse actually comes to pass--still unlikely in my mind but whatever--gold isn't actually gonna help that much. As Prof Deprew pointed out earlier this year, if you have a pillowcase full of gold, you better also have a boat and if you have both gold and a boat but no guns you're likely to be divested of both your gold and your boat very quickly. And, of course, you still have nothing to eat. But, as Pep said, at least you have a pillowcase full of gold and that's kind of cool.

Seriously, better to have a place to grow a little food, collect some clean water and wait the whole storm out. Even the mother of all hyperinflations in Weimar Germany burned itself out in less then 2 years.
2009-10-08 12:43:35
Is gold any different than paper?
FIrst off...I have no expertise, just a joe double-deuce...

It is said that one can't eat money, or gold, or live in either one, etc. But over the last 'x' number of years, as homeowners re-financed, took out HELOC's, and otherwise used their homes and leveraged assets as ATM machines, what did they do with all the 'equity'? For a majority, they in fact did eat the money. Dined out every meal, spent it frivolously, etc. They certainly didn't buy gold, put it in the bank, or in anything with a 'store of value', did they?

When the conversation comes to inflation/deflation, my small mind conjures the image of everyone bringing trash bags full of dollars to a huge warehouse, and once the warehouse is full we push down the plunger and blow the thing sky high. Everyone cashed out and then we detonated the cash. So the debt from the borrowing is still there, but the printing of the money by the fed has served to replace the amount the dynamite(housing market) took care of. So no one has any more money than they had before, and most people never got their trash bags refilled, so where's the inflation? I see the debt, but I don't see where all the extra money is that is going to be chasing all the assets....
2009-10-08 13:21:03
Is gold any different than paper?
Regrettably, farm land, in production, does get used up - soil depletion and erosion. That's part of what makes farming so difficult to do profitably.

Unused, low -priced and -taxed land, though.. there might be something there to ponder. Drive a hard bargain, of course. And pay cash.
2009-10-08 14:04:05
Is gold any different than paper?
I am an amatuer too. So just thinking out loud.

I think you are right in terms of the amount of debt/money destruction and creation of new money. What's different though, I think, is the change in preferences for different assets and reduction in the velocity of money. We will see reduced appetite for consumption of those previously "overpriced" assets causing deflation there whereas inflation for the assets that were not relatively overpriced.

If you consider most of the overpriced assets were in the country then imports must get hurt with inflation. Even if the velocity of money comes back again, I would think preference shift will prevail and dollar will lose ground relative to the countries that produce real stuff.

2009-10-08 14:54:55
Problem with Gold
The problem with gold is that all the debt is denominated in USD. When in trouble, people will sell everything, including gold, to pay off debt.

We could in theory create paper currency whose volume is tied to population. That way inflation and deflation would remain in check. Banks need to be forbidden to lend out money that does not exist. Then we would not need banks at all. This won't happen, so let's look at a discussion about gold's prospects in recessions and depressions:

http://www.tradingstocks.net/ html/gold_up_or_down_in_depression.html

2009-10-08 16:57:09
HMMM
Maybe everyone's problem with inflation is they are on the losing end of the situation. I bet everyone in here would say inflation is great if they had first access to the newly created purchasing power.

Gold bugs and Paper chasers remain on the same superficial investment level as a day trader, but try to throw in geo-politics and history into the discussion.

Wealth will never be realized with the hording of any medium of exchange.
2009-10-08 19:09:18


seems after Prof Fleck closed his bear fund, he found a better way to short America.

Indeed, Short America is the trade of the century.

2009-10-08 20:41:30
HMMM
I think there are a few good-hearted people on the receiving end of inflation who realize they benefit from it, but who also recognize and point out that it is bad. Some of the wives of the wiseguys, wives who know what their husbands do, don't like it, despite the jewelry and big house etc. etc. I don't know how prevalent it is, but for those who are very aware, the luxury they enjoy on the backs of suffering people is not very enjoyable. If they could get off those backs without messing up the lives of people they love (families), they would.

I've worked a lot less in the past two years mostly because I can't stand watching my taxes get spent so destructively. I would enjoy working more, and I would enjoy spending all that extra money, but the evils of government sicken me, so I don't.
2009-10-11 17:40:12
Re: William Fleckenstein
William,
you make such excellent points but the real question each person including yourself should ask is "What are you going to do about it?"

Knowledge without action is useless and you are better off not knowing than knowing just to gossip about it.

In essence, gossiping - which is what most Americans do - is nothing more than complaining.

I am big advocate of ignoring the news unless I am prepared to take immediate ACTION to provoke change.

Instead of feeling powerless, finger pointing blame and asking "What are "they" going to do to help me?"

You empower yourself by asking what can I do to change this? Where can I go for help? Who can I partner with? What groups can I start?

How can I assemble a mass group of people who are serious about fighting the deception and corruption we face from the super elite?

Count me in William. I am with you 100%.

James Blackburn
PersonalGrowthPages
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