Are Employment Numbers Being Hinged on Weather?

Inquiring minds are investigating the Unemployment Weekly Claims Report for March 4, 2010.
 

In the week ending Feb. 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 469,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 498,000. The 4-week moving average was 470,750, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average of 474,250.

Weekly Unemployment Claims



The weekly claims numbers are volatile so it's best to focus on the trend in the four-week moving average. That four-week average hasn't shown any improvement for quite some time.

Four-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims



Four-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims Detail



The four-week moving average of claims for the last three weeks is above where it was on December 12, 2009, and just slightly better than it was on December 5, 2009. By this measure, the recovery has stalled.

Blaming the Weather

A week ago in "Nascent" Recovery or "Nascent" Economic Collapse? I noted how economists were blaming the weather for last week's rise in weekly claims and possible jump in the monthly job report:
 

Weather-Related Questions

I have a few simple questions for...economists now blaming the weather:
 

• "Did you not know there was a snowstorm on the East coast?"
• "If you did, then why didn't you factor it in to your estimates?"
• "How can you be surprised by something you knew?"

Bernanke's "Snow Job"

To refresh your memory, last week Ben Bernanke blamed the weather for the jump in claims and warned about overinterpreting the data.

From Yahoo Finance Jobless Claims Rise Due to Weather-Related Factors:
 

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told a congressional committee that the snowstorms are likely to have a short-term -- but not permanent -- effect on unemployment and layoffs. He said policymakers will "have to be careful about not overinterpreting" the upcoming data.