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Answers I Really Wanna Know: Is a Tech Wreck on the Horizon?


With the future so bright, is it time to seek shade?

  • If technology stocks led the market higher and the semiconductors lead tech, what can we read into...

    • Altera (ALTR) recently raised guidance and the stock was flat.

    • Diodes (DIOD) recently raised guidance and the stock was flat.

    • Microchip (MCHP) recently raised guidance and the stock is flat.

    • Texas Instrument (TXN) substantially raised guidance and the stock is up a dime.

    • Since Intel (INTC) raised guidance on August 28th, the mother chip is .40 higher (and well below the initial surge).

    • 85% of portfolio managers are bullish on tech in a recent survey.

    • An ISI Group survey indicates 88% of respondents believe we're in a bull market.

    • The Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BAC) fund manager survey finds "a feast for contrarian tactical bears" due to "the strongest market sentiment in two years" by those with "skin deep optimism" and the highest equity allocation since October 2007.

    • TrimTabs reports that insider selling grew to $6.1 billion in the month of August, the highest since May '08 when the DJIA was at 12,000, and the insider selling to buying ratio is 30:1, the highest-level evah.

    • According to Goldman Sachs (GS), hedge funds have increased net long exposure to pre-Lehman levels (technology is the most popular spot and there is no short base in the financials).

  • Can I officially thank Minyan 3M for his help with the above data?

  • Can I share this paragraph of insightful reporting from the NYT article last week?

    "Just before stocks turned around in early March, only 2 percent of investors were optimistic, according to the Daily Sentiment Index, which measures the mood of small traders and is run by Jake Bernstein, an independent market analyst. Now, the index shows that about 89 percent are feeling bullish. Investors were equally cheery when the Dow hit its record high in October 2007."

  • Given everyone is short Armageddon, are the conditional elements of a crash higher now than they were in March?

  • What are 1000 banks and 2000 credit union failures in the next two years amongst friends?

  • If Minyan Peter sends me an article to read, shouldn't I pass it along to ye faithful?

  • As the financial crisis morphed from financial to economic to social, isn't it nice to be surrounded by a community of proactive thought leaders during the most interesting juncture in the history of global financial markets?

  • Are the Eagles a top five all-time band?

  • Now that the DXO -- the Deutsche Bank Crude Oil ultra-ETF -- has officially been laid to rest, will it be the first in a long line of trading fads gone awry?

  • Remember in November during the presidential election when I offered that the economy as a "wash," meaning that the enormity of the economic maelstrom was bigger than either candidate and the eventual winner should be careful as the societal backlash would be...historic?

  • Does "what," "when," "how," and "why" bounce around anyone else's crowded keppe in terms of the seemingly inevitable tipping point?

  • Or perhaps this really is 2003 and the onus is on each of us to let my missteps serve as lessons rather than painful, costly mistakes?

  • Shouldn't our risk profile allow for both sides of the ride, either in terms of effective allocation or through the process of risk management?

  • I'll ask it again -- are the Yanks peaking too early? (congrats #2)

  • Are Koi fish shy?

  • Do you have to eat cuddle fish as a pair?

  • With a spoon?

  • Will Q2 be the "best quarter in years-in either direction" as I sensed a few months ago?

  • The Raiders-Bolts Monday Night Football game doesn't kick-off until 10:30 EST?

  • Don't these people work?

  • How brilliant was Gene Hackman in Young Frankenstein?

  • Are you drawing the all-important NDX 1675 with a crayon rather than a pencil?

  • Will that be good money after bad?

  • Bad meaning bad or bad meaning good?

  • Have I mentioned that Phoebe has taken affection to an entirely new level?

  • Can I also mention that the Toddo Sleep-o-Meter is inexplicably red-lining for no apparent reason?

  • What do you get when you marry societal acrimony and protectionism?

  • That's not kosher, right?

  • You wanna see the most beautiful thing I've ever filmed?

  • If it all fell to pieces tomorrow, would you still be mine?


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