Freaky Friday Potpourri: The Rubber Meets the Road
The key variables we'll need to watch as we digest the variant views are two-fold.
It's Festivus Friday in the 'Ville and that means one thing; time management! One would think that after six major events--this being the seventh--hosting upwards of 500 people would be old hat. It may be for some but when you stop trying, you start dying; growth in any way, shape or form, is a persistent and consistent effort.
Some top-line vibes in no particular order:
- S&P 1120. We've spoken about it for the better part of the year--it's the downtrend from the 2007 top and a 50% retracement of the entire decline--and we ticked there this morning. There are two ways to view this dew.
- The first, as discussed yesterday, is the S&P has enjoyed a sideways basing over the course of the last month, which would have been the #1 option for Hoofy as he approached this level. "Work off the oversold condition as a function of time rather than price," he said at the time, "and I'll meet you at S&P 1200 soon thereafter."
- Boo will offer that the market is a forward-looking discounting mechanism and an uptick in jobs is baked into the 60-something percent rally off the lows. "We've still got a situation brewing in the Middle East," he reminds us as he licks his burnt fur, "not to mention potential sovereign defaults, state bankruptcies and commercial real estate looming large on the horizon."
- The key variables we'll need to watch as we digest the variant views are two-fold. First, the financials; as demonstrated yesterday in real-time, are the carrot to the market's horse. Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) (notably laggy today) are stocks to watch in that sector.
- Second, the dollar, which is up smartly today. We've been on the "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation" train long before most media outlets knew there were tracks. Given the tick-by-tick negative correlation the last few months, this relationship gained mas press but remember Minyans, this is a big picture dynamic. A grabby greenback for a day is one thing; sustained strength is an entirely different conversation.
- One of the first things I learned on Wall Street? Rallies end on good news, not bad news. Market internals are buff and sentiment is snazzy (don't blink, it's also reactive), so keep that axiom tucked somewhere in the back of your crowded keppe.
- Minyanville's conversation with Bobby Sager, the inspiration behind NBC's The Philanthropist, received tremendous feedback from ye faithful. Bobby, as most of you know, recently wrote a book with Sting entitled The Power of the Invisible Sun, which I strongly recommend as a holiday gift for someone you truly care about. Minyans attending Festivus tonight will have an opportunity to shake Bobby's hand as he joins us in our effort to affect positive change.
- We've got upwards of twenty professors swinging through MVHQ today along with a slew of to-do's in front of tonight. Fare ye well into swell, my friends, and remember that emotion is the enemy when trading.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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