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business newsMarket Remains Tough to Play as Daily Action Shocks Investors
By
Gary Kaltbaum
Nov 01, 2011 3:20 pm
Markets gave back a ton on Monday, and we walk back into a huge gap to the downside today. There's no manual for market action like this!
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If I wrote a weekend report, I would have told you major indices broke out of a trading range on heavy volume. I would have told you pullbacks would be controlled and rotational. I would have told you to look at any pullbacks to buy into as a lot of areas turned the corner and were coming up the right sides of their bases. Of course, I would have also told you the Kardashian marriage would last forever.
For two months, starting with the lows in August, the market was unplayable as we saw ridiculous moves both up and down in a matter of days. Markets were experiencing gaps every day to the upside or downside. Good news, bad news...you name it. It was tough. It was tough because when markets moved up quickly, people wanted to be in. When markets moved down quickly, they wanted to be short. All the markets provided during that time was nausea. I stayed on the sidelines, as detailed in my newsletter, because that kind of market action simply isn't healthy.
October 4 provided a high volume washout day where typically, you are going to rally off of. The rally was stunning in time and price. Instead of the market slowly working through resistance, within five days and a couple of gaps, the markets were back at resistance. They then sat around for a few days...a wild few days with gaps and reversals. We saw things like housing and financials actually put in what looked like good bottoms and then we had E day on October 27, in which Europe supposedly solved its problems. Technically, it was a strong volume gap above resistance. Fast-forward to yesterday. What happens? A rogue Jon Corzine makes leveraged bets -- just like the numbskulls did in '08 -- and kills MF Global (MF), the company he took over just over a year ago, leading others to ponder whether others are in the same position. We hear again that all may not be well in the big E. Markets give back a ton on Monday and we now walk back into a huge gap to the downside today.
I would love to tell you there is a template or a manual for all this...but there isn't. The fast money bails on the first sign of a problem and jumps back on the first sign of relief. If you put a crayon in the hand of your 2-year-old and told him to draw a picture, that scribble would look like a lot of charts I am looking at as I watch the action today. European markets are moving up and down in one day enough for a normal year's gains or losses.
Bottom line: This market is going to remain tough to play, but even I am stunned by this action. The emotions of fear and greed usually last a while, but right now, it lasts days, sometimes only hours. I wish I could use my favorite line and tell you I will know more when a few more cards come out of the deck. I am just not sure what cards are in the deck.
Don't blink!
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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