Four Reasons Mexico Is the New China
By Keith Fitz-Gerald Nov 13, 2009 3:40 pm
It's closer, it's cheaper, it's better!
When it comes to global manufacturing, Mexico is quickly emerging as the “new” China.
According to corporate consultant AlixPartners, Mexico has leapfrogged China to be ranked as the cheapest country in the world for companies looking to manufacture products for the US market. India is now number two, followed by China, and then Brazil.
In fact, Mexico’s cost advantages and have become so cheap that even Chinese companies are moving there to capitalize on the trade advantages that come from geographic proximity.
The influx of Chinese manufacturers began early in the decade, as China-based firms in the cellular telephone, television, textile, and automobile sectors began to establish maquiladora operations in Mexico. By 2005, there were 20 to 25 Chinese manufacturers operating in such Mexican states as Chihuahua, Tamaulipas, and Baja.
The investments were generally small, but the operations had managed to create nearly 4,000 jobs, Enrique Castro Septien, president of the Consejo Nacional de la Industria Maquiladora de Exportacion (CNIME), told the SourceMex news portal in a 2005 interview.
China’s push into Mexico became more concentrated, with China-based automakers Zhongxing Automobile, First Automotive Works (in partnership with Mexican retail/media heavyweight Grupo Salinas), Geely Automobile Holdings (GELYF) and ChangAn Automobile Group (the Chinese partner of Ford (F) and Suzuki Motor), all announced plans to place automaking factories in Mexico.
Not all the plans would come to fruition. But Geely’s plan called for a three-phase project that would ultimately involve a $270 million investment and have a total annual capacity of 300,000 vehicles. ChangAn wants to churn out 50,000 vehicles a year. Both companies are taking these steps with the ultimate goal of selling cars to US consumers.
Mexico’s allure as a production site that can serve the US market isn’t limited to China-based suitors. US companies are increasingly realizing that Mexico is a better option than China. Analysts are calling it “nearshoring” or “reverse globalization.” But the reality is this: With wages on the rise in China, ongoing worries about whipsaw energy and commodity prices, and a dollar-yuan relationship that’s destined to get much uglier before it has a chance of improving, manufacturers with an eye on the American market are increasingly realizing that Mexico trumps China in virtually every equation the producers run.
“China was like a recent graduate, hitting the job market for the first time and willing to work for next to nothing," Mexico-manufacturing consultant German Dominguez told the Christian Science Monitor in an interview last year. But now China is experiencing “the perfect storm … it’s making Mexico -- a country that had been the ugly duckling when it came to costs -- look a lot better."
The real eye opener was a 2008 speculative frenzy that sent crude oil prices up to a record level in excess of $147 a barrel -- an escalation that caused shipping prices to soar. Suddenly, the labor cost advantage China enjoyed wasn’t enough to overcome the costs of shipping finished goods thousands of miles from Asia to North America. And that reality kick-started the concept of “nearshoring,” concluded an investment research report by Canadian investment bank CIBC World Markets (CM).
According to corporate consultant AlixPartners, Mexico has leapfrogged China to be ranked as the cheapest country in the world for companies looking to manufacture products for the US market. India is now number two, followed by China, and then Brazil.
In fact, Mexico’s cost advantages and have become so cheap that even Chinese companies are moving there to capitalize on the trade advantages that come from geographic proximity.
The influx of Chinese manufacturers began early in the decade, as China-based firms in the cellular telephone, television, textile, and automobile sectors began to establish maquiladora operations in Mexico. By 2005, there were 20 to 25 Chinese manufacturers operating in such Mexican states as Chihuahua, Tamaulipas, and Baja.
The investments were generally small, but the operations had managed to create nearly 4,000 jobs, Enrique Castro Septien, president of the Consejo Nacional de la Industria Maquiladora de Exportacion (CNIME), told the SourceMex news portal in a 2005 interview.
China’s push into Mexico became more concentrated, with China-based automakers Zhongxing Automobile, First Automotive Works (in partnership with Mexican retail/media heavyweight Grupo Salinas), Geely Automobile Holdings (GELYF) and ChangAn Automobile Group (the Chinese partner of Ford (F) and Suzuki Motor), all announced plans to place automaking factories in Mexico.
Not all the plans would come to fruition. But Geely’s plan called for a three-phase project that would ultimately involve a $270 million investment and have a total annual capacity of 300,000 vehicles. ChangAn wants to churn out 50,000 vehicles a year. Both companies are taking these steps with the ultimate goal of selling cars to US consumers.
Mexico’s allure as a production site that can serve the US market isn’t limited to China-based suitors. US companies are increasingly realizing that Mexico is a better option than China. Analysts are calling it “nearshoring” or “reverse globalization.” But the reality is this: With wages on the rise in China, ongoing worries about whipsaw energy and commodity prices, and a dollar-yuan relationship that’s destined to get much uglier before it has a chance of improving, manufacturers with an eye on the American market are increasingly realizing that Mexico trumps China in virtually every equation the producers run.
“China was like a recent graduate, hitting the job market for the first time and willing to work for next to nothing," Mexico-manufacturing consultant German Dominguez told the Christian Science Monitor in an interview last year. But now China is experiencing “the perfect storm … it’s making Mexico -- a country that had been the ugly duckling when it came to costs -- look a lot better."The real eye opener was a 2008 speculative frenzy that sent crude oil prices up to a record level in excess of $147 a barrel -- an escalation that caused shipping prices to soar. Suddenly, the labor cost advantage China enjoyed wasn’t enough to overcome the costs of shipping finished goods thousands of miles from Asia to North America. And that reality kick-started the concept of “nearshoring,” concluded an investment research report by Canadian investment bank CIBC World Markets (CM).
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
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Reply
2009-11-14 20:03:27
mexico -
glad to read of such good things taking hold in mexico -
having great grandparents from there and spain, living in texas, and having felt the brunt of decades of wetback and peso jokes, it's a really good thing to see happening -
btw, do you know why nasa won't hire mexicans ? everytime they say "launch" the mexicans head out to lunch ;-)
my dad alway told me, don't let anyone tell you your great grandparents were wetbacks, they swam across on their stomachs!
there's more, but i need to take a nap ;-)
having great grandparents from there and spain, living in texas, and having felt the brunt of decades of wetback and peso jokes, it's a really good thing to see happening -
btw, do you know why nasa won't hire mexicans ? everytime they say "launch" the mexicans head out to lunch ;-)
my dad alway told me, don't let anyone tell you your great grandparents were wetbacks, they swam across on their stomachs!
there's more, but i need to take a nap ;-)
2009-11-14 20:09:42
Mexico the new China
Hmmm..when they going to start building the Wall. We'll call it the Bueno Grande Wall de Mexico. Our elected officials have been looking for a new job program...there it is...let's build a wall..
Let's encourage, no force all perennial unemployed to build it. Start now. Get the Git-mo celebs to lay the foundation, literally.
Lou Dobbs can me the wall Czar.
No? awe come on, I like it. Who's with me?
Let's encourage, no force all perennial unemployed to build it. Start now. Get the Git-mo celebs to lay the foundation, literally.
Lou Dobbs can me the wall Czar.
No? awe come on, I like it. Who's with me?
2009-11-15 17:37:37
great article
i had no idea that this was going on... Maybe things will be looking up in Mexico.
nice insight - thanks!
nice insight - thanks!
2009-11-16 10:28:39
Mexico the new China
the austinamerican statesman paper here in austin had a great cartoon a while back showing the only way to get a berlin type wall built here in the southern U.S. border, was to hire the illegals, and to solve the problem of also still keeping them out, they had to build all of it from the southern side ;-)
2009-11-16 11:07:19
Mexico the new China
I hear you. I was, as is almost always the case, having fun. News lately on Lou Dobbs, rumors of our government looking to create jobs, and China's great wall, entered my somewhat cynical gray matter as I read the article.
Continuing on that tread; if the illegals were guaranteed dual citizenship once the wall is completed. What you figure, 60, 80, 100 years from now. If done right, it could serve as a border-line, super visitors attraction, with a super high speed transit rail on the top. Maybe Warren should be the sponsor. "If you build it they will come!" It could happen.
On a more serious note: I was recently in Cabo San lucas, Puerto Vallarta, Acapulco, and Huatalco, MX as part of a RCL cruise. It was awesome.
Continuing on that tread; if the illegals were guaranteed dual citizenship once the wall is completed. What you figure, 60, 80, 100 years from now. If done right, it could serve as a border-line, super visitors attraction, with a super high speed transit rail on the top. Maybe Warren should be the sponsor. "If you build it they will come!" It could happen.
On a more serious note: I was recently in Cabo San lucas, Puerto Vallarta, Acapulco, and Huatalco, MX as part of a RCL cruise. It was awesome.
2009-11-16 11:13:39
Mexico the new China
yea, lots of opportunity tween us, canada, and mexico; but the latter's got to get control of the drug situation down there, and i realize it's connected to end demand sources here, it's a mess...
and there's more and more american type colonies or neighborhoods in mexico too -
but i haven't had the pleasure of really spending some quality time down there yet, maybe next year, the wife and i can really visit; lots of artist colonies etc -
and there's more and more american type colonies or neighborhoods in mexico too -
but i haven't had the pleasure of really spending some quality time down there yet, maybe next year, the wife and i can really visit; lots of artist colonies etc -
2009-11-16 16:33:01
Mexico the new China
As to the Mexican drug problem and the US demand aspect. If you google Andrew Lahde, and read his farewell letter, in the last few paragraphs he gives some possible answers to many of our ills. I'll bet he's down there, laying in a hammock, right now, without a care in the world, just smiling.
2009-11-16 20:10:11
Mexico the new China
just the thought of that made me smile ;-) i'll have to look that up, thanks ted
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