Randoms: The Next Shoe to Drop
Overnight catalysts loom for the market.
Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter (click for a free trial). It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also A Respite From Reality? and Trades vs. Investments.
Will The Bacon Be Shakin'? - 12:18 PM
"Marty, find out where the police are going to be taking him. Send over a bottle of bubbly with a bucket of ice and a card. Have it say, "Tough break, get drunk on me. Use the bucket to ice down your marbles, Yours, Z."
Such was the quote from Ray Zalinsky in Tommy Boy and I'm reminded of it as I ready to shoot some marbles. I share this with the understanding that IT'S NOT ADVICE and IT'S PROLLY SILLY but the process--for better or for worse--is what we share in Minyanville. Sometimes right, sometimes wrong, always honest.
In my last Buzz, I noted, "Ben just said we need to ensure that financial products have real purposes that benefit users," to which I responded, "Is there any hintage in there regarding the treatment of CDS?" I have no idea--nada, zero, nil--but lest Timmy has something up his sleeve, I'm tossing a chip on the snake eyes.
I've bought some FAS (aka financial on crack, three times ultra bull) despite my long-standing view that these products are toxic. My catalyst is Timmy's speech and, if he whiffs (again), I'll take my loss like the man I am. Again, I am NOT advocating you do this--I don't know your horizon, I don't know your risk profile--but as I always share my process with hopes it adds to yours, I'm communicating in the interest of Minyanship.
Please know that I've bought these and I will soon sell them--it is a pure trade, and one with binary risk.
Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 1:25 pm
- If Timmy was gonna say something seismic, wouldn't he have done it during his prepared text?
- As such, doesn't discipline dictate unwinding the FAS bet for a nickel loss? (Yes.)
- Nothing ventured, nothing gained?
- You can try anything as long as you're disciplined?
- How 'bout some mad snaps for Renee Walker's swimming skills?
- NYSE internals are again 2:1 negative?
- Is there any doubt the Boss is the best live performer of all-time?
- What if the cancer really is bigger than the global economic patient?
- Did I communicate that I slapped trailing stops on my (second) SSO stab?
- Have you taken your 14 day FREE trial to our top-notch subscription products?
- ALRIGHTEE THEN, as we've resent the Minyanville Underground Railroad missive through email transmit, Ambassadors should have them in short order. If, by chance, you've "unsubscribed" from that service in the past (and don't get the update), will you then--and only then--let me know so I can have a carrier pigeon personally deliver the missive?
- Should we videotape Minyan Karaoke tonight?
More Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 3:07 pm
Were rumors of Bonnie Tyler's demise greatly exaggerated?
While discipline dictated punting my bank crack (FAS) when Timmy didn't drop the bomb, would a trailing stop (as a stylistic approach) have allowed me to hang on to that 25,000 share schnitzel?
Is "trading not to lose" the quickest way to do just that?
If you've got two buckets--trading and savings--are you shuffling the former to the latter when the till floweth over?
How great would it be if everyone in the congressional hearing jumped up and sang this song at the same time?
Trade options? Have you checked out OptionSmith by Steve Smith? -- coming soon to Minyanville!
If you looked up "Thankless" in the dictionary, would you find a picture of a guy who was extremely bearish at all-time highs and increasingly constructive at multi-decade lows?
Would anyone mind if I moved to Australia?
Is a whoosh lower to S&P 600 in March--that would serve as the 2009 low--way too easy?
And completely dependent on the US dollar?
Is there anything better than sitting courtside for the Big East Tourney with your college roommate, best friend and professional partner (especially when they're all one dude)?
Do you think he'll read this, get the hint and scoop some tickets?
Old Mother Hubbard! - 3:45 pm
There's alotta chatter out there about lows and bottoms and no, I'm not referring to Lindsay, Brittney or Paris, I'm talking tape, pure tape. The question I'm wrestling with is whether this downdraft must "end" with a bang rather than a whimper. More importantly, I wanna make sure I'm flush with dry powder and in a position to pounce when and if that shoe arrives.
What will it look like, Imelda? It could be General Electric (GE), as we've been vibing. Perhaps it's the autos, which continue to loom large. Pensions, municipalities, money market funds and Eastern Europe are also viable, yet unforeseen, catalysts.
The simple truth is that it's entirely unknown and therein lies the risk to overnight exposure. I've been actively trading intraday while staying light and tight between the closing and opening bells. All the while, I'm reminding myself that opportunity cost is the "other side" of discipline.
I've had a ton of conversations about the opportunities that await on the other side of this ride, the "fertile field," so to speak, that will be less crowded and chock full of profits. The key to that--and something we've been harping on in the 'Ville--is Financial Staying Power.
I offer this in the context of honesty, trust and respect, for the mission of Minyanville is to make sure ye faithful are amongst those standing tall--not only surviving, but thriving, and doing so in a manner consistent with our good name and true word.
Give yourself a pat on the back, friends, for by reading this, you're already further along than most.
Fare ye well into the bell and have a heckuva fine night!
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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