Randoms: The Next Shoe to Drop

By Todd Harrison Mar 03, 2009 4:00 pm
Overnight catalysts loom for the market.
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Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter (click for a free trial). It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also A Respite From Reality? and Trades vs. Investments.


Will The Bacon Be Shakin'? - 12:18 PM

"Marty, find out where the police are going to be taking him. Send over a bottle of bubbly with a bucket of ice and a card. Have it say, "Tough break, get drunk on me. Use the bucket to ice down your marbles, Yours, Z."

Such was the quote from Ray Zalinsky in Tommy Boy and I'm reminded of it as I ready to shoot some marbles. I share this with the understanding that IT'S NOT ADVICE and IT'S PROLLY SILLY but the process--for better or for worse--is what we share in Minyanville. Sometimes right, sometimes wrong, always honest.

In my last Buzz, I noted, "Ben just said we need to ensure that financial products have real purposes that benefit users," to which I responded, "Is there any hintage in there regarding the treatment of CDS?" I have no idea--nada, zero, nil--but lest Timmy has something up his sleeve, I'm tossing a chip on the snake eyes.

I've bought some FAS (aka financial on crack, three times ultra bull) despite my long-standing view that these products are toxic. My catalyst is Timmy's speech and, if he whiffs (again), I'll take my loss like the man I am. Again, I am NOT advocating you do this--I don't know your horizon, I don't know your risk profile--but as I always share my process with hopes it adds to yours, I'm communicating in the interest of Minyanship.

Please know that I've bought these and I will soon sell them--it is a pure trade, and one with binary risk.

Donke Shoen.


Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 1:25 pm
 

  • If Timmy was gonna say something seismic, wouldn't he have done it during his prepared text?

  • As such, doesn't discipline dictate unwinding the FAS bet for a nickel loss? (Yes.)

  • Nothing ventured, nothing gained?

  • You can try anything as long as you're disciplined?

  • Asphinchtersayswhat?

  • How 'bout some mad snaps for Renee Walker's swimming skills?

  • NYSE internals are again 2:1 negative?

  • Is there any doubt the Boss is the best live performer of all-time?

  • What if the cancer really is bigger than the global economic patient?

  • Did I communicate that I slapped trailing stops on my (second) SSO stab?

  • Have you taken your 14 day FREE trial to our top-notch subscription products?

  • ALRIGHTEE THEN, as we've resent the Minyanville Underground Railroad missive through email transmit, Ambassadors should have them in short order. If, by chance, you've "unsubscribed" from that service in the past (and don't get the update), will you then--and only then--let me know so I can have a carrier pigeon personally deliver the missive?

  • Should we videotape Minyan Karaoke tonight?


More Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 3:07 pm
 

  • Were rumors of Bonnie Tyler's demise greatly exaggerated?

  • While discipline dictated punting my bank crack (FAS) when Timmy didn't drop the bomb, would a trailing stop (as a stylistic approach) have allowed me to hang on to that 25,000 share schnitzel?

  • Is "trading not to lose" the quickest way to do just that?

  • If you've got two buckets--trading and savings--are you shuffling the former to the latter when the till floweth over?

  • How great would it be if everyone in the congressional hearing jumped up and sang this song at the same time?

  • Trade options?  Have you checked out OptionSmith by Steve Smith? -- coming soon to Minyanville!

  • If you looked up "Thankless" in the dictionary, would you find a picture of a guy who was extremely bearish at all-time highs and increasingly constructive at multi-decade lows?

  • Would anyone mind if I moved to Australia?

  • Is a whoosh lower to S&P 600 in March--that would serve as the 2009 low--way too easy?

  • And completely dependent on the US dollar?

  • Is there anything better than sitting courtside for the Big East Tourney with your college roommate, best friend and professional partner (especially when they're all one dude)?

  • Do you think he'll read this, get the hint and scoop some tickets?


Old Mother Hubbard! - 3:45 pm

There's alotta chatter out there about lows and bottoms and no, I'm not referring to Lindsay, Brittney or Paris, I'm talking tape, pure tape. The question I'm wrestling with is whether this downdraft must "end" with a bang rather than a whimper. More importantly, I wanna make sure I'm flush with dry powder and in a position to pounce when and if that shoe arrives.

What will it look like, Imelda? It could be General Electric (GE), as we've been vibing. Perhaps it's the autos, which continue to loom large. Pensions, municipalities, money market funds and Eastern Europe are also viable, yet unforeseen, catalysts.

The simple truth is that it's entirely unknown and therein lies the risk to overnight exposure. I've been actively trading intraday while staying light and tight between the closing and opening bells. All the while, I'm reminding myself that opportunity cost is the "other side" of discipline.

I've had a ton of conversations about the opportunities that await on the other side of this ride, the "fertile field," so to speak, that will be less crowded and chock full of profits. The key to that--and something we've been harping on in the 'Ville--is Financial Staying Power. 

I offer this in the context of honesty, trust and respect, for the mission of Minyanville is to make sure ye faithful are amongst those standing tall--not only surviving, but thriving, and doing so in a manner consistent with our good name and true word. 

Give yourself a pat on the back, friends, for by reading this, you're already further along than most.

Fare ye well into the bell and have a heckuva fine night!


R.P.
 

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Position in SSO

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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(8)
2009-03-03 16:09:42
SP500--Yes, it WOULD be too easy ...
... Just as the short side has been become too easy. The point of maximum frustration cannot be reached in a straight line. As much as anybody else, Todd, you taught us that!
2009-03-03 16:24:04
Farmers driving Lambos?
Donke Shoen.

What is this "Donkey Show" you keep referring to?
I guess it involves what is happening to the taxpayer.

Trying to figure out the following:

When SP500-600 comes, what to buy. P/E should be falling for quite a while. Should be some value available, but John Mauldin is predicting 5-6 years of muddle though, so it will be hard to find. But I can imagine people need hamburgers and shaving cream.

Trying to figure out when the commodity bottom is relative to the stock bottom. Heard Jim Rogers on Aussie TV stating that farmers will be the ones driving Lamborginis in the future, not Wall Street types? An odd statement to make, in that it is so definitive.

Trading the inverse indexes with heavy stops. Fridays unemployment number is hinted to be bad (but of course we could rally on it).

Have you considered straddle positions with stops. The news is so volatile that each day could go either way. But we all know eventually it can still go lower.

2009-03-03 16:49:38
Renee Walker
When she saw the bad guys get on the boat Walker should have simply called her dimwitted boss on the chopper. She could have stayed dry and the guys on the chopper could have shot-up the boat. Love Jack Bauer, but the scripts for 24 for are icredibly stupid, makes the "Bourne" franchise look like "Citizen Cane".
2009-03-03 17:30:53
Transparency trumps allusions, Goldilocks runs for cover.
Transparency trumps allusions, Goldilocks runs for cover.

It's apparent finally that very few folks like G W Bush are assuming that fundamentally our economy is sound. Capital Hill meetings reflect the stark reality of our situation. (Thank God) finally. The news is all about what shambles our economy is in.

Finally we can begin the business of solving our crisis rather then to bury our heads in a sand box. We can begin to rebuild trust by clawing back some of the excessiveness with in the financial system. We can rebuild trust by taking the likes of Madoff and putting him in prison where he belongs. We want Claw backs on his wife's supposed separate fortune. Bank presidents for bankrupt Banks like Wamu, Indy Mac Wachovia, countrywide can face their day of reckoning.

Real Estate values can fall back to earth and Realtors can face their own day of reckoning with more realistic commissions. Last weekend I looked at a home price at over 400 thousand that should be less the 220 thousand. The Realtor knew it was over priced and admitted it as soon as I asked how she did her market analysis. The owner was aware it was overpriced and wanted to list it that way anyway. My conclusion was that the purpose was to lead prospective buyers of other homes close by to assume that the price on the home they were looking at was a good deal when comparing it to the one priced at over 400 thousand.

In my life time I have dealt with some of the sleaziest realtors out there. Good looking ladies with the morals of a snake when it comes to making a deal. Greedy men and women that will lie through their teeth with no regards of what damage they might be doing to their customers just to get the sale or listing. Bible thumping sleaze bags using religion as a back drop to promote the illusion of honesty. It's a sick world in Real Estate. This has to change.

Maybe now people can save for their future and not watch it disappear with inflation. 200 million people saving 5 dollars a month will put a billion in the bank. 100 dollars a month is 20 billion. Multiply that by a year and that's 140 billion plus interest. Lots of folks can save a lot more then that.

Look what demand destruction has done on oil prices from a 150 a barrel to 40 in just a few months. Hundreds of billions are no longer going over seas. In time Oil execs will be forced to face reality and quit stealing billions from their shareholders.

Stopping the war in Iraq will redirect hundreds of billions back into our economy for green tech projects.

Why are the Republicans politicians so dead set on forcing failure on working class Americans by fighting Democrats and their efforts to restore the economy versus being a part of a bi partisan team to resolve our crisis. Working class Americans R & D alike asked for bipartisan politics after the elections. Both parties had better work it our or there will be hell to pay in the future.

I have yet to see much progress in cleaning up our markets. Sarbanes Oxley is only as good as those who enforce it. In fact at this point it is useless. Wall Street refused to even police it owns which leaves it a complicated cess pool run by thieves who are fighting oversight ever step of the way knowing that it would dry up their source to steal from if oversight ever became effective. They are still a long ways away from ever seeing any of my money.

Where did all that money go? 30 trillion in market caps world wide lost in assumed wealth on paper and electronically. Trillions more stolen by excessive wages and bonus plans. That's why cash is king even though it's only worth .28 cents its still worth more then a slip of paper that was levered 40 to 1 back by a promise or insurance company like AIG.

A good contract should not need insurance if it was truly backed by assets of fair value. That's why ten to one ratios are even too high.

One last disturbing thought is that with asset deflation of 40% and up, loan demand in the future for banks will be cut in half. Not good in an economy that was over banked in the best of times.

Have a wonderful day.

JPM
2009-03-03 17:32:28
Renee Walker
I agree Michael. In the 60's we had "I Spy" and "Mission Impossible" and "Mod Squad" and I remember thinking then how cool they were and "realistic". In hindsight it was pure silliness and beyond sophomoric. I stopped watching 24 after the first season. It was so far fetched from reality, often corny, and frequently predictable in its own bizarre way. People often asked me "did you see 24? Isnt it scary? Do you think they are really doing that?" And I just laughed. Its great distraction and entertainment and nothing more.
2009-03-03 20:52:08
FAZ, the anti-crack
Toddo,

Traded 0 million sh/day in October, now trades 18M sh/day just 5 months later.

Someone in America must be preparing the 5x and 10x ETF.
2009-03-03 22:56:07
Fozzie the Bear
FAZ 18 million sh/day?

Fozzie is coming to town with Gonzo.

Farmers will be rich because food will become the most valuable commodity.

I'd say Grains, Gold, and Oil would work.

Of course, you need water, energy, and Colgate-Palmalive for your three S's.

Cheers!
Eric
2009-03-04 01:22:53
BOSS
New Yorkers love The Boss. Just so you know, the rest of us really don't care. How funny (or sad?) is it that "Born in the USA" is sold on a Japanese owned label. Wasn't that just on Minyanville?
Subject:
Comment:
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