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Stabilization

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We need lower debt, not higher; we need production, not lending.

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If you add up all the government bailouts, explicit and implicit, along with actual government purchases of assets (debt from banks) it comes out to a surreal $30 trillion. Markets are cheering that things have "stabilized" and "things are getting less bad". I ask you seriously when the government throws $30 trillion at the "crisis" (one which bankers are now claiming is over), can you call that stable? That is like declaring a patient being kept alive on a heart-lung machine healthy.

Of course we have stabilized. The government has bankrupted our future to do it. The government(s) control the LIBOR market, the swaps market, the bond markets with all the "money" they are printing. They are feeding "money" to banks under the table at an alarming rate.

Those declaring the economy is now recovering do not understand (still) the problem: we are stuck with too much debt. The government's solutions are to create more debt, as their next to be announced PPIP does. But an economy grows from production, not lending at the wrong price. This is a long term problem; the government has only addressed the short run symptoms.

Let me give you an example. Sixty to 70% of our economic growth depends on consumption. In order to "reflate" an economy (still the wrong way to do it but I will give the bulls the fact that you can drive up nominal asset prices by devaluing a currency), you need people to borrow money and spend it. In 2002 consumer debt as a percentage of disposable income was an all-time high of 90%.

Apparently that was still low enough to spur consumers into borrowing money against their houses and spend it. This drove the ratio up to 135%! By the first quarter of 2009 the ratio dropped to about 130%. Just look at what damage that did as consumers tried to get out of some debt. The ratio is still at least 125% (we will know for sure in at the end of June as the numbers are quarterly). There's no way to know for sure, but logic says to reflate from that high level of debt is going to be virtually impossible.

The government is going all out socializing markets and the economy. This is the exact opposite approach I would take. We need lower debt, not more. We need production, not lending. Unfortunately I offer no solutions other than let an economy grow from the bottom up, by savers finding a good investment and lending to entrepreneurs. When the government provides capital (printing) money, it crowds out production.

Risk is very high.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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