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Random Thoughts: Swingers Got Nothin' on This Tape


If you don't stay humble, the bear will eat the bunny.


Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter. It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community.

Answers I Really Wanna Know - 1:14 p.m.

  • Where's the Spirit, Yo?

  • Doesn't Dear Prudence dictate making some sales (vs. earlier buys) into this liftage as a function of discipline? (yes, as I continue to "trade around" some core exposure)

  • After all, aren't there some pretty massive unknowns looming (into today's close, post expiration and into the CDS settlement next week)?

  • Have all Minyans learned to stay humble or the market will do it for you?

  • Was yesterday's Crude 'tude a classic example that the tougest fades are the best trades?

  • Or is writing that (while I still have positions on) an Eddie Mush in and of itself?

  • Who's ready for the weekend? (hand raised)

  • Is it bullish (self-fulfilling) or bearish (path of maximum frustration) that, the more distance we put between our current level and the 'higher low," the more and more folks will climb aboard the "succesful retest" bandwagon?

  • Or--through a "fund vs. fund" lens--has the specter of performance anxiety officially entered the equation?

  • Particularly if we can close strong?

  • T-minus three hours? Sweet!


We're Going To Vegas Baby! - 2:10 p.m.

With all due respect to Trent and Mike, those swingers had nothing on this tape. I mean seriously, yesterday it felt like the market was crashing and here we are, 24 hours and 1000 points higher. We've been trading from the long side but there are no victory laps--not in this tape and never in the 'Ville--for if you don't stay humble, the bear will eat the bunny.

Some top-line vibes as we toss the ball back on the mound and eye the weekend dugout:

  • This is undoubtably the most painful scene in cinematic history.

  • I've been making sales and rotating risk as I attempt to use price to my advantage. Color me gonzo on the QLD and incrementally pared on my energy bets (I sold my opening purchases and some overage). Remember, this is a counter-trend rally play and NOT the beginning of a new world energy order.

  • So--was last Friday the low? I would say "until proven otherwise" but that might by construed as being saucy. What I will say is that S&P 910, 900 or 840 is decent risk definition for those looking for technical context.

  • My eyes are starting to look at the GLD more and more. Minyans will remember that this--and the FXY--are on my wish list but I wanted to wait for the relief rally to initiate my positions. It's a fluid process but it's on my lung so it's off my tongue.

  • Jugglin Yo, lemme hop. As always, I hope this finds you well.


The Little Engine That Could - 2:46 p.m.

  • One more shout out to HoJo as a function of Minyan feedback!

  • I just got a slew of IM's that said "They're gonna kill 'em into the close" - and a like amount that said "They're gonna rip 'em into the close."

  • My thought? Assimilate all possibilities into your approach such that you're not beholden to the tape. I've sold enough that I'm in a position to buy 'em back but not enough that I'll have sellers remorse.

  • And, for what it's worth, my sense is higher (note breadth 2:1 positive)

  • The key to next week? The Lehman Brothers CDS settlement of $360 billion on Tuesday, which will shape credit psychology in a big way.

  • Note the Citi (C) Pity Party (-5%).

  • Trading in a (nut) shell?

  • I like Favre and, for that matter, the Jets. Still, I hope the Black Hole consumes Gang Green and begins the journey towards respectability with a single step and second win.

  • Festivus. Soon. Come. Fun. Kids.

  • Fare ye well into the bell, Minyans--we're almost there!

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