Lone Gunman Brought Down the Dollar
Here's a synopsis:
(Warning: Some of these are very lengthy.)
- August 8th: Trichet Puts Spotlight on the Euro, Dollar
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August 9th: US Dollar Rally Continues
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August 11th: Currency Intervention And Other Conspiracies
In The Great Gold, Silver Conspiracy Explained, I took a look at many manipulation claims in the gold and silver market, notably the COT report, large short activity, trader concentration and other so called "smoking guns."
In Jon Nadler, Senior Analyst Kitco, Chimes In On The Precious Metals Conspiracy, I noted that one conspiracy theory about gold lease rates that blew sky-high on the alleged manipulation was actually a bad data feed on lease rates.
Occam's Razor
I am a big fan of Occam's Razor, which states that the simplest solution is the best.
Competing Theories
Theory 1: The US government, foreign governments, central banks, various broker-dealers, and a consortium of 10 large US banks are all acting together in some massive conspiracy to suppress the price of precious metals for 15 years running - and not a single insider has stepped up to expose the fraud. Even though housing fraud stories from insiders are being disclosed at a rapid pace, and the government, CIA, and other intelligence leaks have been running rampant throughout that entire timeframe.
Theory 2: There was huge selling by over-leveraged hedge funds in response to fundamental changes in regards to the US dollar vs. the Euro.
You can compare these theories to the silver monthly chart here.
Simple logic would dictate that nothing ever goes straight up or straight down. There are always pullbacks in any bull market. Interestingly, one of the arguments for manipulation was based on how fast silver fell compared to the moving averages. On a monthly chart one can see that silver was miles above the monthly moving averages and did no more than fall back to it.
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Obviously, you are part of the conspiracy against my Tin Foil Hat startup.
Now THAT's a professional conspiracy theory that encompasses the universe AND the stock market.
Time travelers: where are they when you need them?
.. The CORRECT EXPLANATION is the ONLY correct one, no matter how complicated or simple...
.. Of course, some people seem to be incapable of understanding anything more than a simple explanation... and thus they always choose the simple one over the correct one... (yes, I share your irritation when they do that... and when they vote for a Bush Jr. simpleton for president...)
Operation Northwoods was a "conspiracy theory" until the Freedom of Information Act brought it to light.
Operation Ajax was a "conspiracy theory" until the NY Times obtained the declassified CIA report on it., so was Operation PBsuccess - both of these operations were conspiracies that were deeply intertwined with economics. Go ahead and find out what they are...
The Pentagon Papers were a "conspiracy theory" until Mike Gravel read them into the record as was the Gulf of Tonkin Incident.
The Tuskegee Trials were a "conspiracy theory" at one point.
When somebody, especially a person with either actual authority or the media promotes as an authority starts dismissing something as a conspiracy theory, this is to turn your brain off. This is not to say it's not just a load of hoopla, but what I'm seeing here is a distinct lack of reasoned thought and a lot of invective toward anybody that questions what the mechanism is behind underlying price movements.
You may not know what is going on for certain, but I can say one thing with certainty, a touted expert doesn't either - he's just repeating a lazy line because he won't get off his duff to actually find out. He gets paid either way. I've had a lot more success listening to market "conspiracy theorists" like Harry Schultz, the Aden Sisters, Robert Morgan, Ted Butler than I have listening to clowns like Nadler, or for example Jim Cramer who has openly admitted to manipulation of the markets.
And still, people like Nadler deny there is any possibility of manipulation in the markets, when there are clear and very obvious examples of it.
I should like to point out that this very article is claiming that there is direct intervention in currency support, something that is derided a conspiracy theory by most buffoon talking heads. Just imagine how easy it would be to make money if you knew which way the Fed was going to turn. I suppose the people that control the central banks are just too pure of heart to take advantage of insider knowledge, or our SEC is just too formidable to let them...
The thing that concerns me about the overall context of the article is that it seems to lump those of us concerned about the very real frequency, magnitude, and intent of Fed and Foreign Central Bank "intervention." Failing to factor in these probabilities seems imprudent and should not have those of us who do lumped in with the many truly wild conspiracy theorists out there.
Respectfully...
