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All Aboard?

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Investors weigh whether the train is leaving the station.

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"Trouble ahead, trouble behind. And you know that notion just crossed my mind." --Grateful Dead

Apropos of Bennet's Beatle's Tribute earlier this week-and consistent with the Minyanville Underground Railroad-I can't seem to shake this song from my crowded keppe. Perhaps it's fitting, as the whole is wondering if we've got a ticket to ride.

We saw two true downside tests yesterday-the first led by JP Morgan (JPM) and second by Wells Fargo (WFC)-and Hoofy held his ground. A checklist of our daily tells served as a scorecard as we edged towards today's big day. It was thin and whippy, as one might expect when reactive traders posture into a catalyst.

Best I can tell, reading the tea leaves out of Washington , we won't see the suspension of mark-to-market accounting. What we could see, however, is an adjustment in how fair market value measurements are applied. It's all very confusing which would perhaps explain why policy makers are so very confused.

For my part, and this is me being honest, my risk leash is tighter than a snare drum for a variety reasons.

First, I operated from the long side into this event and booked some shekels (not a victory lap, just sharing my process).

Second, I'm being pulled in twelve different directions and I learned a long time ago that trading demands 100% focus (which is a tall order even when I'm not cat juggling).

Third, I'm working on some monster projects that require immediate attention. It's "all good," Snoop, just labor intensive across the board.

Fourth, I'm allowed to patiently await my pitch as long as I understand that opportunity cost is the other side of discipline.

Fifth, I can't get that darn Juicy Fruit commercial out of my head.

Sixth, I wanna watch the tone and tenor of the tape, including reaction to both news and supply. In particular, if we don't get any discernible news today, I'm wary of the sessions that bookmark the weekend.

Seventh, heaven. Remember that game?

Eighth? Is enough. Man, I'm showing my age.

Ninth? Deuce.

Tenth? Our Trading Commandments, for the newbie Minyans in our midst.

Only trade with what you can afford to lose, manage risk (don't chase reward) and above all else, be good to others and better to yourselves. There's so much hate in the world-be a part of the solution rather than part of an ever-growing problem. Drizzam.

Random Thoughts

  • If you missed yesterday's face for radio TechTicker hits, MV Assistant Managing Editor Steve "Spyder" Reiter compiled them for ye faithful before hopping a flight to Amsterdam. Trade hedged, young man.

  • After covering my small USO short into yesterday's slippage, I'm relatively naked from an exposure standpoint. And you know what? That's entirely alright-sometimes taking a risk-free step back helps clear the mechanism.

  • Back at the financial dike-please wear your galoshes-Freddie Mac (FRE) says it needs another $31 billion but concedes it won't be able to repay its IOU. At least it's being honest? (Gulp.)

  • Speaking of unpaid IOU's, Minyanville President Kevin Wassong-my best friend, college roommate at Syracuse and the recipient of countless "first calls" on front row seats throughout the last 20 years-enjoyed the Big East Tourney last night at the Garden without me. They name streets after you brother-they're called "One Way."

  • Yes, I'm joking. Sorta.

  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is calling on the IMF to triple the "firepower" ahead of this weekend's G20 meeting, begging the question of what happens if they run out of liquidity?



  • We'll be sending out Murmurs tomorrow as the first correspondence with (not at) the Minyanville Underground Railroad. If you believe your name and word still mean something and you operate through the lens of honesty, trust and respect, lettuce know if you want climb on board The Critter Express.


Answers I Really Wanna Know...


Good luck today, Minyans-be the ball.


R.P.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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