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Back Off the Dollar-Stock Inverse Correlation


Getting at least partial gains is the only logical strategy.


Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter (click for a free trial). It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community.

Greetings from New York, where not one person from Philly has thanked me for suggesting they brace themselves for bitter disappointment prior to the World Series. Here I am, all dedicated to serving and helping, and those ingrates just swear at me. After the Pedro experiment, there are rumors that Sandy Koufax may start tonight for the Phillies. Like Pedro, Sandy is well-rested and intimidating. And old.

For the market's part, this "Dollar Inverse Correlation with Stocks" is going to end in tears. Running hell-bent for leather in and out of stocks based on fractional dollar moves isn't a game for the inexperienced or faint of heart. I'm scaling back my negative S&P bet by trimming shares of the SDS ETF as we drop. In this tape, when you happen upon a winning position, you have to book at least partial gains. Honestly, it's the only logical strategy in a world gone mad.

In slightly related news:

  • Ford (F) posts a gain, which is shocking until you consider that it's competing against the government even as it benefits from the same "stimulus" programs. For my money, I'm sticking with my newly Chinese Hummer until DC's finest runs a "trade in your car for any other car, even money, no questions asked" program. I'm staying well and truly in the passing lane on chasing or in any way touching Ford.

  • CIT (CIT) goes bankrupt. What does it mean in the real world? Well, the taxpayers and Treasury will get nothing, which is more or less exactly why I don't like contributing money for the Treasury to throw away on companies like CIT. If the British Empire wasn't too big to fail, do you honestly think our mighty banks and insurers can't lose?

  • What's my stop on the SDS position? $40, give or take.

  • One workday into November and the price wars for Christmas are officially here. Wal-Mart (WMT), which broke the retail "code" by going with massive price cuts prior to Thanksgiving a few years ago, started rabble-rousing by announcing an intention to "have the lowest toy prices this year". While specifics were unavailable, the guess here is that the plan involves both squeezing the suppliers and selling really cheap toys, both in terms of price and quality.

  • The move obviously impacts private Toys R Us and Target (TGT). The former is much better as a private firm and Target remains a nicer place to shop in general. And that better be common knowledge because Target just fired 85 employees in the marketing division.
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Position in SDS

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