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Daily Commodity Spot: Natural Gas Pattern May Have Completed Setup in S&Ps


A breakdown of the day's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.
Today's Highlight: Natural Gas fulfilled my (up)crash(down) setup. It's an interesting pattern that may have completed its setup Monday in S&Ps. And that would correlate to the euro having met its target Monday.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)
Despite hanging on to 80.35 resistance into the weekend, Monday's open gapped down to attack the next lower objective at 79.30. A bounce has room up to 80.15 without gaining traction that might prevent the decline from extending down.

Mar Contract EC, ETF: (FXE)
Gapping up Monday quickly fulfilled the rally's initial 1.3050 target. The session did not close above its open, suggesting that a corrective dip to 1.2955 may be necessary to extend the rally to its next higher target(s) at 1.3333 and 1.3400.

Feb Contract GC, ETF: (GLD)
Monday's high came within $2 of the rally's 1684.00 target. Closing above the morning's highs does suggest the rally will extend higher without delay Tuesday. But closing negative after testing 1684.00 would signal momentum reversing down.

Mar Contract SI, ETF: (SLV)
Monday's gap up was not extended any higher through the close, which went out around 32.40, well short of the 33.55 target. Closing Tuesday under Monday's low would suggest the rally was topping. Opening Tuesday under Friday's 31.75 close would signal the rally had peaked.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US, ETF: (TLT)
Already having twice confirmed the drop from testing 145-10 resistance, Monday's open gapped down to new lows at 141-10 and extended intraday to 140-21. Unless Tuesday's open were already rallying aggressively on the way to test 142-00 resistance, the 140-00 target remains intact.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL, ETF: (USO)
Monday's gap up on renewed tensions with Iran produced a test of 99.40-99.75 resistance. They were still being tested through the close. Coming one day after breaking under their support, their rejection through the close would have been bearish confirmation. Instead, extending further Tuesday above 99.40-99.75 would make 103.00 and even 111.00 increasingly likely.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract NG, ETF: (UNG)
Maybe a day late, but not a dollar short… The (up)crash(down) setup produced the biggest single gaining session Monday since… a long time. Its intraday swing from 2.29 to 2.63 matched any three consecutive cumulative sessions of the 10-day decline. That much of the signal was fulfilled. The signal also suggests that a bottom will now form, although Monday's bounce could first extend higher to 2.80 so long as 2.50 holds as support.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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