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Random Thoughts: The Waiting is the Hardest Part

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How you play, if you play, is a function of your time horizon and risk profile.

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  • Look at me, the S&P! 1405 is back as the bulls-eye as a near-term pennant forms. Hold, and the 1450-1480 zone (downtrend) comes in to play. Fold, and the MOAL (mother of all levels) comes into play at 1380.

  • I tried some odd-lot, space holder Elan (ELN) calls for a buck, in large part because I can only lose a buck, and with the intention of doing further work. Please keep in mind that there is substantial binary risk here.

  • Sickless in Seattle? I get that Tucker was fighting for his life but who was watching the other patients as that operation took place?

  • There's a slew of chatter that this will be the kitchen sink quarter for the banks. Given how oversold they are-not to mention that perception is reality, particularly with a friendly FOMC-they could knee jerk higher.

  • So it's said, however, I don't think the write-offs end here (already $100 billion plus) just as I didn't think that subprime was contained last spring and summer. How you play, if you play, is a function of your time horizon and risk profile.

  • Speaking of which, we saw some size buying in the XLF (financial spiders) January 28 calls out of this morning's gate.

  • Keep an eye on the DBA (agricultural ETF) as corn, soy and wheat trade limit up. Inflation in things we need, deflation in things we want will continue, at least until the dollar reverses course.

  • The upside of anger? Currency gains (the falling dollar) were the Cause célèbre of IBM's (IBM) upside pre-announcement.

  • Petty at halftime in Phoenix? How bout Petty as we anxiously await earnings!

  • The most bullish thing on my screen? 2:1 positive breadth.

  • The most bearish thing on my screen? VXO 25 and the pretty in pink BKX.

  • The tie-breaker (away from the financials)? Big beta, as Baidu (BIDU) slips back towards the flat-line.

  • While I'm rooting for Big Blue and the Bolts, there's something mighty appealing about Tom Brady matching up against Brett Favre.

  • Man, they were hitting hard this weekend, eh?

  • Juggling alotta to-do's to start the week-not to mention a case of the Monday's-so lemme hop as we chip and chop. As always, I hope this finds you well.


R.P.

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