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Random Thoughts: The Waiting is the Hardest Part

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How you play, if you play, is a function of your time horizon and risk profile.

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  • Look at me, the S&P! 1405 is back as the bulls-eye as a near-term pennant forms. Hold, and the 1450-1480 zone (downtrend) comes in to play. Fold, and the MOAL (mother of all levels) comes into play at 1380.

  • I tried some odd-lot, space holder Elan (ELN) calls for a buck, in large part because I can only lose a buck, and with the intention of doing further work. Please keep in mind that there is substantial binary risk here.

  • Sickless in Seattle? I get that Tucker was fighting for his life but who was watching the other patients as that operation took place?

  • There's a slew of chatter that this will be the kitchen sink quarter for the banks. Given how oversold they are-not to mention that perception is reality, particularly with a friendly FOMC-they could knee jerk higher.

  • So it's said, however, I don't think the write-offs end here (already $100 billion plus) just as I didn't think that subprime was contained last spring and summer. How you play, if you play, is a function of your time horizon and risk profile.

  • Speaking of which, we saw some size buying in the XLF (financial spiders) January 28 calls out of this morning's gate.

  • Keep an eye on the DBA (agricultural ETF) as corn, soy and wheat trade limit up. Inflation in things we need, deflation in things we want will continue, at least until the dollar reverses course.

  • The upside of anger? Currency gains (the falling dollar) were the Cause célèbre of IBM's (IBM) upside pre-announcement.

  • Petty at halftime in Phoenix? How bout Petty as we anxiously await earnings!

  • The most bullish thing on my screen? 2:1 positive breadth.

  • The most bearish thing on my screen? VXO 25 and the pretty in pink BKX.

  • The tie-breaker (away from the financials)? Big beta, as Baidu (BIDU) slips back towards the flat-line.

  • While I'm rooting for Big Blue and the Bolts, there's something mighty appealing about Tom Brady matching up against Brett Favre.

  • Man, they were hitting hard this weekend, eh?

  • Juggling alotta to-do's to start the week-not to mention a case of the Monday's-so lemme hop as we chip and chop. As always, I hope this finds you well.


R.P.

Position in ELN

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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