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Random Thoughts: Navigating Bubble Trouble

By

You can find some scary bubbles when you check the charts.

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  • As a Tony Shalhoub fan, this sorta saddens me.

  • How do you spell "Whadaya nuts?" in Chinese? B-I-D-U, at least from my perch. I've dabbled in Baidu (BIDU) in the past and I'm dabblin' a bit from the long side now, with a mental stop below $220.

  • It may be WAY early for the Olympic run but the chatter of margin trading in China- coupled with a 30% Shanghai haircut - woke me up. Sometimes right, sometimes wrong, always trying.

  • The FXI is also a vehicle, with $135 a potential level for those looking to define risk.

  • Yeah, the Bennet Bubble Charts are enough to scare the sprinkles out of us. And far be it from me to challenge reality-I've been "all over" the tech bubble, real estate bubble and the debt bubble, often times in front of the curve. I'm simply looking for an entry point for a trade that I can potentially trail with stops. Whether or not this is it remains to be seen.


    Click to enlarge



    Click to enlarge

  • Of course, I could end up singing the blues. Or the Peking Opera, off key, as the case may be.

  • Boo just walked by and gave me a look that would melt the sun. Great, all I need is a pissed off metaphorical critter roaming around my head.

  • Two words. Trailing Stops.

  • Despite the early probe, market internals never strayed far from the flat line. Maybe something, maybe nothing, maybe interesting.

  • The banks, however, are Magda saggy. This remains the single biggest thorn in bovine thesis.

  • IBM-symbol, IBM-is on the tape boosting its buyback (IBM). I wonder how many executives will sell into that?

  • We've long followed David Walker, America's (former) chief accountant, because he was always as straight shooter. He offered last summer that "The US government is on a "burning platform of unsustainable policies with fiscal deficits, chronic healthcare under-funding" and "chilling long-term stimulations" as he mapped the parallels between modern day society and the fall of the Roman Empire.

  • We compared his resignation last week with the CFO of a troubled company stepping down. That story has spread like wildfire around the Street, including a strong story by our friends at MarketWatch.

  • The homies stand out. So do the semis. Sorta like Verbil Kint in Usual Suspects.

  • If the monolines are safe and safer, why do Aunt Fannie (FNM) and Uncle Freddie (FRE) trade like they've lost their best friend?

  • A wise man once said "You can pick the direction or you can nail the timing but you'll rarely hit both."

  • And just like that, the DJIA is a scant deuce (200 points) away from resistance. Pretty Sneaky Sis.

  • Shaking up the mojo, I'll be doing the Cody and Rebecca thang on FBN Happy Hour tonight rather than the regularly scheduled Wednesday gig. Good thing I wasn't up at 5:30 AM getting my arse kicked by my trainer. Oh... I was.

  • Hit 'em hard, Minyans, and let's take Bonnie for a roll in ze hay.


R.P.

Positions in BIDU, FXI

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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