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Random Thoughts: Navigating Bubble Trouble


You can find some scary bubbles when you check the charts.

  • As a Tony Shalhoub fan, this sorta saddens me.

  • How do you spell "Whadaya nuts?" in Chinese? B-I-D-U, at least from my perch. I've dabbled in Baidu (BIDU) in the past and I'm dabblin' a bit from the long side now, with a mental stop below $220.

  • It may be WAY early for the Olympic run but the chatter of margin trading in China- coupled with a 30% Shanghai haircut - woke me up. Sometimes right, sometimes wrong, always trying.

  • The FXI is also a vehicle, with $135 a potential level for those looking to define risk.

  • Yeah, the Bennet Bubble Charts are enough to scare the sprinkles out of us. And far be it from me to challenge reality-I've been "all over" the tech bubble, real estate bubble and the debt bubble, often times in front of the curve. I'm simply looking for an entry point for a trade that I can potentially trail with stops. Whether or not this is it remains to be seen.

    Click to enlarge

    Click to enlarge

  • Of course, I could end up singing the blues. Or the Peking Opera, off key, as the case may be.

  • Boo just walked by and gave me a look that would melt the sun. Great, all I need is a pissed off metaphorical critter roaming around my head.

  • Two words. Trailing Stops.

  • Despite the early probe, market internals never strayed far from the flat line. Maybe something, maybe nothing, maybe interesting.

  • The banks, however, are Magda saggy. This remains the single biggest thorn in bovine thesis.

  • IBM-symbol, IBM-is on the tape boosting its buyback (IBM). I wonder how many executives will sell into that?

  • We've long followed David Walker, America's (former) chief accountant, because he was always as straight shooter. He offered last summer that "The US government is on a "burning platform of unsustainable policies with fiscal deficits, chronic healthcare under-funding" and "chilling long-term stimulations" as he mapped the parallels between modern day society and the fall of the Roman Empire.

  • We compared his resignation last week with the CFO of a troubled company stepping down. That story has spread like wildfire around the Street, including a strong story by our friends at MarketWatch.

  • The homies stand out. So do the semis. Sorta like Verbil Kint in Usual Suspects.

  • If the monolines are safe and safer, why do Aunt Fannie (FNM) and Uncle Freddie (FRE) trade like they've lost their best friend?

  • A wise man once said "You can pick the direction or you can nail the timing but you'll rarely hit both."

  • And just like that, the DJIA is a scant deuce (200 points) away from resistance. Pretty Sneaky Sis.

  • Shaking up the mojo, I'll be doing the Cody and Rebecca thang on FBN Happy Hour tonight rather than the regularly scheduled Wednesday gig. Good thing I wasn't up at 5:30 AM getting my arse kicked by my trainer. Oh... I was.

  • Hit 'em hard, Minyans, and let's take Bonnie for a roll in ze hay.


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Positions in BIDU, FXI

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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