Four Reasons Hyperinflation Hasn’t Hit the US... Yet

By Keith Fitz-Gerald Nov 04, 2009 11:30 am
This uncertain limbo isn't good now, or ever.
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Everything we know about classic economic theory suggests the US economy should be experiencing Zimbabwe-like hyperinflation right now, thanks to the nearly $2.2 trillion the US Federal Reserve has pumped into the system.

But we’re not... yet.

Classic economic theory says that money supply can be used to stimulate the economy and our central bankers seem to agree. That’s why they’ve pumped more than $1 trillion dollars into the economy, engineered countless bailout bonanzas for zombie institutions, put Detroit on life support, and delivered a bunch of financial Band-Aids to the trauma ward -- all in a desperate bid to make Americans feel better about the global financial crisis.

To their way of thinking, the trillions of dollars have been a success. That’s why any meeting of the Group of Eight nations looks more like a mutual affection society with central bankers eager to claim credit and backslap each other in congratulations for having avoided the “Great Depression II.”

But by taking the Federal balance sheet to more than $2 trillion from $928 billion 2008, they’ve created a situation that should have resulted in an epic inflationary spike to accompany the 137% increase in liabilities.

Yet that hasn’t quite happened.

Core inflation -- which denotes consumer prices without food and energy costs -- has actually decreased from 2.5% in 2008 to 1.5% presently. And that has many investors who have heard the siren call of the doom, gloom, and boom crowd wondering if they’re worried about nothing.

So what gives?

Well, there are four reasons we haven’t yet seen hyperinflation:

1. Banks are hoarding cash.

Despite having received trillions of dollars in taxpayer-funded bailouts and lived through a litany of shotgun weddings designed to reinvigorate the shattered lending markets, most banks are actually hoarding cash.

So instead of lending money to consumers and businesses like they’re supposed to, banks have used taxpayer dollars to boost their reserves by nearly 20-fold, according to the Fed. The money the bailout was supposed to make available to the system is actually not passing “Go,” but rather getting stopped by the very institutions that are supposed to be lending it out.

Three-year average annualized loan growth rates were 9.6% before the crisis; now they are shrinking by 1.8%, according to Money magazine.

2. The United States exports inflation to China, which remains only too happy to continue to absorb it.


What this means is that low-priced products from China help keep prices down here. And this is critical to something that many in the “China-is-manipulating-their-currency” crowd fail to grasp. If China were to un-peg the yuan and let it rise by the 60% or more it’s supposedly undervalued by, we’d see a jump in prices here in everything from jeans to tennis shoes, toys, medical equipment, medicines, and anything else we import in bulk from China.

Chances are, the shift wouldn’t be dollar-for-dollar or even dollar-for-yuan, but there’s no doubt it would be significant.
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Fifteen trades. All profitable. Since launching his Geiger Index trading service late last year, Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald is a perfect 15 for 15, meaning he's closed every single one of his trades at a profit. And he did this during one of the most volatile periods for the U.S. stock market since the Great Depression. Fitz-Gerald says the ongoing financial crisis has changed the investing game forever, and has created a completely new set of rules that investors must understand to survive and profit in this new era. Check out our latest insights on these new rules, this new market environment, and this new service, the Geiger Index.

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(4)
2009-11-04 12:32:14
Good Article...
Your article is the first one that I've seen in a long, long time explaining the other side of the pegged yuan argument.
2009-11-04 13:06:09
Professor Didier Sornette
I hope to elicit your thoughts on this gentleman's work, Mr. Fitz-Gerald.
2009-11-06 20:10:01
hyperinflation
1. Banks are hoarding cash. True. If there were a free market on interest rates, like there should be, it would be negative right now. And if the banks had to pay that interest on anything say, over their reserves, they'd be loaning money now.

2. China's not the only country that pegs their currency. USA owes all of them. Good explanation.

3+4. ...

5. The dollar still remains gold's replacement. You can hike through the jungle in Panama, or down a dog track in Bolivia, or out into the barren scarred countryside of Moldova, or Indonesia, and find a small village and use American dollars. In fact, they prefer it.

If USA were Greenland, or Iceland or Thailand, our dollar would be worth nothing right now.

The only reason it's worth anything is because the world is using it as their currency.

Especially for the poor around the world, the declining American dollar is an insidiously hurtful tax on their well being.

At least if the Fed were gone, the government would have to right size instead of printing counterfeit money.

The poor around the world would rejoice.
2009-11-07 14:35:57
It takes time for the inflation to take hold
If you look at the money supply and inflation curves for the 1970s, you'll see there's about a three-year lag before the money finds its way into general prices. Have some patience!
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